30 September September Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary September 30, 2022 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 Corn stocks under the smallest trade estimate. Bean stocks larger than expected. Wheat exactly as expected. Source: StoneX, Reuters The smaller than expected corn stocks drove corn prices up through the 20-day moving average, with Friday’s high (at this writing) nearly reaching the September price peak. Technical traders will view today’s performance as a positive event as well as fundamental traders that have smaller beginning stocks for the crop year. Corn prices have been in a relatively narrow trading range during the month of September and Friday’s report could give us the price thrust up to a Sell Signal. Bigger supplies of soybeans to start the new crop year prevented beans from clearing the green line 20-day moving average Friday. Beans have been in a broad trading range since early August and next week, prices will be back down challenging support and adding days to our Buy Signal. There is a gap left on the November bean chart at $13.50, which will likely be a downside target for technical traders. The just finished wheat harvest was estimated to be smaller than the last USDA estimate and 128 million bushels smaller than traders expected. Prices surged up above the recent high and will likely give us Sell Signals early next week. On the next Sell Signal our advice will be to cover 30-60 days’ worth of cash needs. Increased uncertainty in Ukraine and Russia has been positive to prices this week and will be closely watched next week. From the USDA Grain Stocks report: Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2022 totaled 1.38 billion bushels, up 12 percent from September 1, 2021. Of the total stocks, 510 million bushels are stored on farms, up 29 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 867 million bushels, are up 3 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2022 indicated disappearance is 2.97 billion bushels, compared with 2.88 billion bushels during the same period last year. Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports, and farm program administrative data, the 2021 corn for grain production is revised down 41.4 million bushels from the previous estimate. Corn silage production is revised down 888 thousand tons. 2021 planted area is revised to 93.3 million acres, and area harvested for grain is revised to 85.3 million acres. Area harvested for silage is revised to 6.45 million acres. The 2021 grain yield, at 176.7 bushels per acre, is down 0.3 bushel from the previous estimate. The 2021 silage yield, at 20.1 tons per acre, remains unchanged from the previous estimate. A table with 2021 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on pages 17 and 18 of this report. Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2022 totaled 274 million bushels, up 7 percent from September 1, 2021. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 62.9 million bushels, down 8 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 211 million bushels, are up 12 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2022 totaled 698 million bushels, up 36 percent from the same period a year earlier. Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2021 soybean production is revised up 30.2 million bushels from the previous estimate. Planted area is unchanged at 87.2 million acres, but harvested area is revised to 86.3 million acres. The 2021 yield, at 51.7 bushels per acre, is up 0.3 bushel from the previous estimate. A table with 2021 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on page 19 of this report. Special Note The marketing year for corn and soybeans is finished and a thorough review of the balance sheet was completed. This process, which is normal for this time of the year, led to revisions in acreage, yield, and production for the 2021 crop. U.S. corn production for 2021 is revised down 41.4 million bushels and U.S. soybean production is revised up 30.2 million bushels from the previous estimate. All revisions can be found on pages 17-19. All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2022 totaled 1.78 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 591 million bushels, up 41 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at 1.18 billion bushels, are down 13 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2022 indicated disappearance is 543 million bushels, down 24 percent from the same period a year earlier. Related Posts Sept 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Annual Small Grains Summary Reports More corn and beans, less wheat Stocks The USDA reported bigger corn and bean stocks than traders expected. As you can see from the numbers below, corn and wheat stocks were within the range of trade estimates, but the USDA found more beans than anybody expected. USDA Summary Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports, and farm program administrative data, the 2020 corn for grain production is revised down 71.0 million bushels from the previous estimate. Corn silage production is revised down 54 thousand tons. Planted area is revised to 90.7 million acres, and area harvested for grain is revised to 82.3 million acres. Area harvested for silage is revised to .71 million acres. The 2020 grain yield, at 171.4 bushels per acre, is down 0.6 bushel from the previous estimate. The 2020 silage yield, at 20.5 tons per acre, remains unchanged from the previous estimate. A table with 2020 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on pages 17 and 18 of the Stocks report. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 68.1 million bushels, down ... March 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Farmers tell USDA, “We are not planting as many corn and bean acres as traders expected.” The quarterly stocks were slightly smaller than expected for corn and slightly larger on beans and wheat. No surprises in the Stocks report. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Although corn acres are up less than 0.5%, four out of the top five states cut corn acres. Farmers decided to plant 5.4% more soybeans nationally and increased acres in each of the top five bean states. The surprise came in the wheat complex, where acreage was up 3.4% from the last estimate and a whopping 8.8% from last year. The bullishness in today’s reports is a little surprising, since acreage can certainly increase between now and the June report. By boosting the prices, traders will encourage the additional corn and bean acres the marketplace wants. How about the Buy Signals on soybeans, meal, and wheat this morning? Our strategy is to make an increment of sales on the next Sell Signal, which should be just around the corner. Source: All Slides from the USDA Executive Summary For full USDA reports, click on links below. Grain ... March 2022 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings USDA Stocks and plantings positive to wheat, Plantings positive to corn, negative to beans The USDA Quarterly Stocks report was not far off trade expectations for any of the crops. Corn and wheat stocks were both slightly lower, while bean stocks were slightly higher than the average trade guess. The biggest surprise came in Prospective Plantings. Farmers indicated they would plant 89.4 million acres of corn, 2.5 million acres less than traders thought. Farmers indicated 2.2 million more acres soybeans instead. After the aggressive market shakeout this week, the USDA report was released with many traders chased to the sidelines. Corn and wheat prices shot higher following the report, with July and December corn posting new life of contract highs. Bean prices initially fell following the reports but so far have held well above the low of this week’s range. Wheat prices surged higher and ended our Buy Signal in Chicago wheat. Wheat prices are still trading under the green line 20-day moving average, which is the next target for this upside move. The December corn acreage was reported 210,000 acres below ... June Acreage & Quarterly Grain Stocks USDA Surprises Traders with Fewer Bean Plantings The U.S. corn acreage was 40,000 acres less than expected, about half a million acres larger than the March intentions, but about 3.5 million acres smaller than last year’s final number. Beans had the most surprising number, coming in 2.1 million acres below expectations and 2.6 million acres below the March estimate. However, today’s bean planting estimate was still 1.1 million acres larger than last year’s final number. Wheat plantings were 75,000 acres larger than trade expected and 259,000 acres smaller than the March estimate, but 389,000 acres larger than last year’s final number. U.S. corn stocks were almost exactly what the trade expected and totaled 235 million bushels larger than last year at this time. Bean stocks were 5 million bushels larger than the trade expected and totaled 202 million bushels larger than last year. Wheat stocks were 5 million bushels larger than trade expectations and down 185 million bushels from last year. Markets will continue their focus on weather, with increased importance for beans. Source: USDA, Reuters January USDA Supply & Demand, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings USDA Summary The USDA final crop production estimates for 2022 were lowered for corn and soybeans, 200 million bushels and 70 million bushels, respectively. The smaller corn and bean productions totals were a surprise to the trade, who expected US production numbers to be increased slightly. Corn production was reduced due to a surprising cut of 1.64 million harvested acres. The smaller acres offset a bigger national average yield, which was increased from 172.3 to 173.3 bpa. Bean production was cut due to a combined 0.4 bpa reduction in yield and 295,000 acreage reduction. The USDA reported winter wheat plantings totaling 36.95 million acres, a larger than expected 3.7 million acre increase. Traders expected US winter wheat acreage to be increased by just 1.2 million acres. US wheat acres rebounded due to the high crop insurance guarantees, following recent years of lower wheat acreage plantings. US carryout estimates for corn, beans, and wheat were all lower than the December estimates. This was a surprise, with most traders expected carryout to increase slightly across the board. Corn and bean prices were sharply higher on ... June 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Farmers didn’t plant as many acres as traders wanted. Stocks slightly smaller than expected. We knew last fall that South America had to raise a bumper crop and that big crop needed to be followed by a U.S. bumper crop. South America did good on raising a record crop of soybeans, but their second crop corn continues to struggle and lose yield. U.S. farmers needed to make up for some of the world’s short supply by increasing acreage. The USDA told us in March that farmers were not planning on a big enough acreage increase. Today, the USDA confirmed that farmers did not plant as many acres as traders hoped they would. Now the market’s job is to continue to slow demand and adequately adjust for potential U.S. yield shortfalls. The market also needs to guard against potential U.S. weather worries, such as the drought in the western and northern Corn Belts and excess moisture in central and southern regions. This once again puts pressure on South America to strive to raise a record large crop next year. Comments are closed.