28 March March 2022 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings March 28, 2022 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 USDA Stocks and plantings positive to wheat, Plantings positive to corn, negative to beans The USDA Quarterly Stocks report was not far off trade expectations for any of the crops. Corn and wheat stocks were both slightly lower, while bean stocks were slightly higher than the average trade guess. The biggest surprise came in Prospective Plantings. Farmers indicated they would plant 89.4 million acres of corn, 2.5 million acres less than traders thought. Farmers indicated 2.2 million more acres soybeans instead. After the aggressive market shakeout this week, the USDA report was released with many traders chased to the sidelines. Corn and wheat prices shot higher following the report, with July and December corn posting new life of contract highs. Bean prices initially fell following the reports but so far have held well above the low of this week’s range. Wheat prices surged higher and ended our Buy Signal in Chicago wheat. Wheat prices are still trading under the green line 20-day moving average, which is the next target for this upside move. The December corn acreage was reported 210,000 acres below the lowest trade estimate. Corn prices got a shot in the arm from that number. Weather becomes more important with these smaller acres. Other than corn acreage, there wasn’t much in the numbers today (at first blush) to push prices very far outside of their recent trading ranges. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Related Posts March 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Farmers tell USDA, “We are not planting as many corn and bean acres as traders expected.” The quarterly stocks were slightly smaller than expected for corn and slightly larger on beans and wheat. No surprises in the Stocks report. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Although corn acres are up less than 0.5%, four out of the top five states cut corn acres. Farmers decided to plant 5.4% more soybeans nationally and increased acres in each of the top five bean states. The surprise came in the wheat complex, where acreage was up 3.4% from the last estimate and a whopping 8.8% from last year. The bullishness in today’s reports is a little surprising, since acreage can certainly increase between now and the June report. By boosting the prices, traders will encourage the additional corn and bean acres the marketplace wants. How about the Buy Signals on soybeans, meal, and wheat this morning? Our strategy is to make an increment of sales on the next Sell Signal, which should be just around the corner. Source: All Slides from the USDA Executive Summary For full USDA reports, click on links below. Grain ... March USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings US soybean stocks and plantings smaller than expected. There weren't huge surprises in the March 31 USDA reports. Overall, the reports trended bullish for soybeans. March 1 US soybean stocks were 57 million bushels smaller than the average trade estimate, and intended acres to be planted were 737,000 acres smaller than the trade estimate. Bean prices were quickly up about 30 cents following the report release. For corn, March 1 stocks were 69 million bushels small than the average trade estimate, but prospective plantings came in 1.116 million acres above the average trade estimate. Wheat stocks were 12 million bushels larger than expected, and Wheat plantings totaled a little more than 1 million acres larger than the trade expected. The current rallies are providing an opportunity to dribble a little more corn into the market on our current Sell Signal, and we are not far away from generating a soybean Sell Signal that we are looking forward to making more sales on. We have learned historically that selling corn in April and beans in May are very good strategies, if there is not a substantial ... Sept 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Annual Small Grains Summary Reports More corn and beans, less wheat Stocks The USDA reported bigger corn and bean stocks than traders expected. As you can see from the numbers below, corn and wheat stocks were within the range of trade estimates, but the USDA found more beans than anybody expected. USDA Summary Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports, and farm program administrative data, the 2020 corn for grain production is revised down 71.0 million bushels from the previous estimate. Corn silage production is revised down 54 thousand tons. Planted area is revised to 90.7 million acres, and area harvested for grain is revised to 82.3 million acres. Area harvested for silage is revised to .71 million acres. The 2020 grain yield, at 171.4 bushels per acre, is down 0.6 bushel from the previous estimate. The 2020 silage yield, at 20.5 tons per acre, remains unchanged from the previous estimate. A table with 2020 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on pages 17 and 18 of the Stocks report. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 68.1 million bushels, down ... September Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary Corn stocks under the smallest trade estimate. Bean stocks larger than expected. Wheat exactly as expected. Source: StoneX, Reuters The smaller than expected corn stocks drove corn prices up through the 20-day moving average, with Friday’s high (at this writing) nearly reaching the September price peak. Technical traders will view today’s performance as a positive event as well as fundamental traders that have smaller beginning stocks for the crop year. Corn prices have been in a relatively narrow trading range during the month of September and Friday’s report could give us the price thrust up to a Sell Signal. Bigger supplies of soybeans to start the new crop year prevented beans from clearing the green line 20-day moving average Friday. Beans have been in a broad trading range since early August and next week, prices will be back down challenging support and adding days to our Buy Signal. There is a gap left on the November bean chart at $13.50, which will likely be a downside target for technical traders. The just finished wheat harvest was estimated to be smaller than the ... September 2023 Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary More bean and wheat stocks than expected, less corn Corn Stocks Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2023 totaled 1.36 billion bushels, down 1 percent from September 1, 2022. Of the total stocks, 605 million bushels are stored on farms, up 19 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 756 million bushels, are down 13 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2023 indicated disappearance is 2.75 billion bushels, compared with 2.97 billion bushels during the same period last year. Bean Stocks Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2023 totaled 268 million bushels, down 2 percent from September 1, 2022. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 72.0 million bushels, up 14 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 196 million bushels, are down 7 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2023 totaled 528 million bushels, down 24 percent from the same period a year earlier. Comments Corn prices were down 7-8 cents following the reports, while beans and wheat both quickly dropped 20 cents. Corn was no longer in ... January USDA Supply & Demand, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings USDA Summary The USDA final crop production estimates for 2022 were lowered for corn and soybeans, 200 million bushels and 70 million bushels, respectively. The smaller corn and bean productions totals were a surprise to the trade, who expected US production numbers to be increased slightly. Corn production was reduced due to a surprising cut of 1.64 million harvested acres. The smaller acres offset a bigger national average yield, which was increased from 172.3 to 173.3 bpa. Bean production was cut due to a combined 0.4 bpa reduction in yield and 295,000 acreage reduction. The USDA reported winter wheat plantings totaling 36.95 million acres, a larger than expected 3.7 million acre increase. Traders expected US winter wheat acreage to be increased by just 1.2 million acres. US wheat acres rebounded due to the high crop insurance guarantees, following recent years of lower wheat acreage plantings. US carryout estimates for corn, beans, and wheat were all lower than the December estimates. This was a surprise, with most traders expected carryout to increase slightly across the board. Corn and bean prices were sharply higher on ... 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