9 April April 2025 USDA Supply & Demand April 9, 2025 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 Overall, there were no major changes in today’s USDA old crop supply demand tables. The numbers were most favorable to corn, as US and world carryout both shrank a bit more than trade expected. Changes to the soybean numbers were negligible, while US wheat carryout increased more than expected. The USDA left their South American production estimates unchanged this month. Thirty minutes after the reports, prices across our crop markets were largely the same as they were five minutes before the reports. Traders seem to have shrugged at this round of reports. The May reports will be more important as they will include 2025-26 new crop supply demand tables. As expected, the USDA lowered their US and world carryout estimates for 2024-25 old crop corn. The US corn carryout was 75 million bushels smaller than their March estimate, which was a bigger reduction than the average trade estimate forecast. The smaller US corn ending stocks were largely due to a 100 million bushel increase in exports. World corn carryout was 1.25 million tons (49 million bushels) smaller than March. The US soybean carryout was reduced by 5 million bushels due to small changes in imports, crush, and residual. This was largely in line with trade expectations. World soybean carryout increased by 1.07 million tons (39 million bushels). US wheat carryout increased by 27 million bushels month to month, more than trade expected. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts April 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production April 2021 USDA Wasde and Crop Production: U.S. corn stocks smaller than expected The USDA released their April WASDE report today, pegging U.S. corn stocks at 1.325 billion bushels, down from 1.502 billion last month. The average trade estimate had corn stocks 44 million bushels larger. U.S. bean and wheat stocks came in almost exactly where the trade expected. World corn and wheat stocks were each down nearly 4 million tons from their March estimates. This drawdown of world feed supplies surprised traders, who expected 1 million more tons of corn and six million tons of wheat. Get ready for Sell Signals in corn and wheat next week. World bean stocks surprised traders the other way. Ending world bean stocks are estimated to be 86.87 million tons, over 3 million tons from last month and the average trade estimate. Today’s report did not tighten world bean supplies, which will be disappointing to the bulls. Meanwhile, world corn and wheat farmers have fewer bushels expected to be left over at the end of this season. Notice all the South American crop production estimates, especially beans are bigger than ... March 2025 USDA Supply & Demand As expected, the USDA made only a few changes to their supply demand tables this month. First, they left US corn and soybean balance sheets essentially unchanged. Trade had expected US corn ending stocks to tighten slightly, so that could be seen as a slight disappointment. For US wheat, the USDA called for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, and lower exports which increased US wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels. Global corn and soybean ending stocks both tightened a bit this month, while global wheat stocks increased slightly. The drop in global soybean ending stocks fell below the low end of trade estimates, so this would be the second small surprise of the day. Increased crush totals explained the change in world soybean carryout. The USDA chose to leave its South American production estimates unchanged this month, which was in line with trade expectations. Our analysis will be available shortly. April USDA Supply & Demand US corn and wheat ending stocks larger than expected, while soybeans a bit lower The USDA kept U.S. corn carryout unchanged from their March report, instead of lowering it slightly as the trade expected. Global corn carryout was increased 5 million tons, while trade expected no change. U.S. soybean carryout was lowered 25 million bushels from March on reduced exports. This was largely in line with trade expectations. Global soybean carryout was not reduced as much as trade expected. U.S. wheat carryout was increased 25 million bushels on reduced usage, which was a larger increase than trade expected. The USDA increased their Brazilian corn production estimate nearly a million tons more than expected, while decreasing their Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly more than expected. The USDA left their Argentina production estimates unchanged, while trade expected declines. Source: Reuters, USDA, StoneX USDA Summary Corn This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for offsetting changes to feed and residual use and corn used for ethanol production, with unchanged ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels, corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million ... April 2024 USDA Supply & Demand USDA report contained only small adjustments this month Traders see today’s fundamental forecast showing more than adequate supplies and ending stocks. The South American corn crop is still at risk and the USDA has refused to lower their estimate as far as private trade estimates have fallen. All of the northern hemisphere crops are into their risk periods. We have written virtually that same paragraph following each one of the most recent reports. The numbers have not really changed much since last fall, except the South American crops turned out to be smaller than expected. Today’s fundamentals have been well traded in recent weeks. There were no surprises today. Now we are all focused don’t he growing conditions in all the major production areas in the world, especially the United States. Most areas are off to a pretty good start but it is just April and too soon to tell how good crops are going to be. Today’s fundamentals tell traders that prices will be cheap this fall if we don’t have any weather problems in the United States or some ... January 2025 USDA Supply & Demand, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings The January reports were bullish in general. The USDA lowered their yield estimates for US corn and soybeans, pulling both down below the low end of the trade range. The corn yield was cut 3.8 bpa to 179.3 bpa, while the soybean yield was cut 1 bpa to 50.7 bpa. The end result was that corn and soybean carryout also came in below the smallest trade estimates. The US corn carryout dropped to 1.540 billion bushels (-198 million), while soybeans dropped to 380 million bushels (-90 million). Markets surged higher on the bullish reports. The Sell Signal in soybeans resumed on the price surge. We recommend leaning into these Sell Signals and adding to your recent sales. If you sold up to our recommended levels, add another 5% on this rally. If you aren’t sold up to our recommended levels, use this opportunity to catch up. Although we are happy to receive the smaller numbers, we are cautious because stocks are still expected to be large and South America’s harvest has already begun. We are also about ready to get ... February 2025 USDA Supply & Demand The USDA made some minimal tweaks to its U.S. carryout estimates in its February WASDE report while making some cuts to corn and soybean forecasts for South America. The February report released Tuesday left its ending stocks estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans unchanged from the January report, which tripped up some analysts who had predicted reductions for both. Analysts said it appeared the report overall was not particularly controversial although the reductions in South America’s corn and soybean production could encourage the bulls while waiting The report kept the corn carryout at 1.54 billion bushels (bbu) as opposed to the analysts’ average of 1.52 bbu. The soybean estimate was unchanged at 380 million bushels (mbu) compared to the prediction of 374 mbu. The wheat ending stocks for the United States were lowered to 794 mbu from 798 mbu in January. Global ending stocks were lower than in January and came in below expectations: Corn fell to 290.31 million metric tons (MT) worldwide from 293.34 million MT in the January report and missed the average projection of 292.52 million MT. Soybean ending ... Comments are closed.