US corn and wheat ending stocks larger than expected, while soybeans a bit lower The USDA kept U.S. corn carryout unchanged from their March report, instead of lowering it slightly as the trade expected. Global corn carryout was increased 5 million tons, while trade expected no change. U.S. soybean carryout was lowered 25 million bushels from March on reduced exports. This was largely in line with trade expectations. Global soybean carryout was not reduced as much as trade expected. U.S. wheat carryout was increased 25 million bushels on reduced usage, which was a larger increase than trade expected. The USDA increased their Brazilian corn production estimate nearly a million tons more than expected, while decreasing their Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly more than expected. The USDA left their Argentina production estimates unchanged, while trade expected declines. Source: Reuters, USDA, StoneX USDA Summary Corn This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for offsetting changes to feed and residual use and corn used for ethanol production, with unchanged ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels, corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels. With offsetting use changes, ending stocks are unchanged at 1.440 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is raised 15 cents to $5.80 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,501.6 million. This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, reduced trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Soybeans The USDA increased U.S. exports 25 million which lowered ending stocks by the same amount. The season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged this month at $13.25 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $420 per short ton. The soybean oil price is projected at 70.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents. The 2021/22 global soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, trade, and ending stocks. Global soybean production is reduced 3.1 million tons to 350.7 million on lower crops for Brazil and Paraguay. Global soybean stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons to 89.6 million mainly on lower U.S. and Argentine stocks. Wheat The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, lower domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Annual feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 785 million as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets and exports would be the lowest since 2015/16. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 678 million. The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for slightly higher supplies, increased consumption, lower trade, and reduced ending stocks. Projected 2021/22 global trade is lowered 3.0 million tons to 200.1 million as lower exports by the EU, Ukraine, the United States, and Kazakhstan are not completely offset by higher exports by Russia, Brazil, and Argentina. The majority of Ukraine’s exports have already been shipped with limited additional amounts expected for the remainder of 2021/22. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are lowered 3.1 million tons to 278.4 million, a 5-year low.