10 April April 2024 USDA Supply & Demand April 10, 2024 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 USDA report contained only small adjustments this month Traders see today’s fundamental forecast showing more than adequate supplies and ending stocks. The South American corn crop is still at risk and the USDA has refused to lower their estimate as far as private trade estimates have fallen. All of the northern hemisphere crops are into their risk periods. We have written virtually that same paragraph following each one of the most recent reports. The numbers have not really changed much since last fall, except the South American crops turned out to be smaller than expected. Today’s fundamentals have been well traded in recent weeks. There were no surprises today. Now we are all focused don’t he growing conditions in all the major production areas in the world, especially the United States. Most areas are off to a pretty good start but it is just April and too soon to tell how good crops are going to be. Today’s fundamentals tell traders that prices will be cheap this fall if we don’t have any weather problems in the United States or some other kind of black swan event that changes the way we view food prices. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Related Posts April 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production April 2021 USDA Wasde and Crop Production: U.S. corn stocks smaller than expected The USDA released their April WASDE report today, pegging U.S. corn stocks at 1.325 billion bushels, down from 1.502 billion last month. The average trade estimate had corn stocks 44 million bushels larger. U.S. bean and wheat stocks came in almost exactly where the trade expected. World corn and wheat stocks were each down nearly 4 million tons from their March estimates. This drawdown of world feed supplies surprised traders, who expected 1 million more tons of corn and six million tons of wheat. Get ready for Sell Signals in corn and wheat next week. World bean stocks surprised traders the other way. Ending world bean stocks are estimated to be 86.87 million tons, over 3 million tons from last month and the average trade estimate. Today’s report did not tighten world bean supplies, which will be disappointing to the bulls. Meanwhile, world corn and wheat farmers have fewer bushels expected to be left over at the end of this season. Notice all the South American crop production estimates, especially beans are bigger than ... May 2024 USDA Supply & Demand This month’s WASDE report was surprisingly bullish for US corn and wheat, with old and new crop carryout estimates of both coming in smaller than trade expectations. Prices of corn and all three wheat crops continued to move higher shortly after the report release. Lean into these continued rallies by making more sales of corn and all three classes of wheat. We were previously at 20% old crop and 10% new crop. Add another increment of 10% to old crop, and 5% to new crop sales. The USDA made some cuts to their South American production estimates, but overall, they cuts were smaller than trade expected. Thus, the USDA continues to lower their South American production estimates at a conservative pace. Corn The USDA cut 100 million bushels from their old crop (2023-24) US carryout estimate, which was 78 million below the average trade estimate. Then the first 2024-25 carryout estimate for US corn came in 182 million bushels less than trade expected. The new crop production estimates begin with assumptions of 90.0 million acres planted and a 181.0 bpa ... June 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Nothing jumped out as a headline in USDA reports The government didn’t change anybody’s mind with their numbers this month. The USDA only made small adjustments to their US and global supply demand numbers this month. The one area trade expected changes, in South American production, they continued to stick to their guns of higher production numbers. The USDA is not ready to follow the private South American estimates lower. We are heading into the important part of the US crop growing season. It is hard to get crops rated much better than 75% good to excellent. Normally crop ratings will only go down from here, but ratings are still expected to be good again this week. Expect choppy trade to continue. USDA US Summary The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks ... September 2024 USDA Supply & Demand The changes this month from the USDA were mostly minor adjustments from their August estimates, particularly with soybeans and wheat, which both saw little to no changes from last month. In the end US carryout totals for corn and soybeans both declined this month, while US wheat carryout remained unchanged. For corn, the direction of change was not in line with pre-report trade expectations. While traders forecast the USDA to make cuts to their US corn acreage and yield estimates, the agency left corn harvested acreage unchanged and increased their corn yield estimate half a bushel higher. The result was a US corn production of 15.186 billion bushels, 39 million larger than last month. However, incoming stocks were reduced by 55 million bushels, which canceled out the larger production total and left US 2024-25 new crop corn carryout at 4.586 billion bushels, 16 million smaller than August. Global corn carryout was down from last month but larger than trade expectations. The USDA left US soybean harvested acreage and yield unchanged this month. Beginning stocks were down 5 million bushels and ... April USDA Supply & Demand US corn and wheat ending stocks larger than expected, while soybeans a bit lower The USDA kept U.S. corn carryout unchanged from their March report, instead of lowering it slightly as the trade expected. Global corn carryout was increased 5 million tons, while trade expected no change. U.S. soybean carryout was lowered 25 million bushels from March on reduced exports. This was largely in line with trade expectations. Global soybean carryout was not reduced as much as trade expected. U.S. wheat carryout was increased 25 million bushels on reduced usage, which was a larger increase than trade expected. The USDA increased their Brazilian corn production estimate nearly a million tons more than expected, while decreasing their Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly more than expected. The USDA left their Argentina production estimates unchanged, while trade expected declines. Source: Reuters, USDA, StoneX USDA Summary Corn This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for offsetting changes to feed and residual use and corn used for ethanol production, with unchanged ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels, corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million ... July 2024 USDA Supply & Demand We were buyers this week. We have corn, soybeans, and wheat in Extended 3-Box Buy Signals. We have been telling livestock feeders and users it is time to accumulate. Grain prices are well below any price buyers budgeted earlier in the year. Corn The USDA’s analysis of the stocks and all positions report caused them to increase corn usage estimates for the bushels in the bin, cutting 2023-24 corn stocks 120 million bushels below the lowest trade guess. The average trade guess expected the USDA to increase corn stocks by 27 million bushels. The USDA also increased usage by 100 million bushels for the new crop year and left the yield estimate unchanged. Their estimate today pegs ending stocks as of August 31, 2025, at 2.097 billion bushels, 215 below the average trade estimate. World corn carryout increased slightly from the June estimate. Cheap grain increases usage. We are not trying to make a bullish argument, although we believe prices are cheap enough and have adjusted to current surplus fundamentals. Weather is the biggest uncertainty. Soybeans Very small changes were made ... Comments are closed.