9 December December 2024 USDA Supply & Demand December 9, 2024 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 Strong corn demand improved the balance sheet beyond expectations Strong demand totals for corn provided a bullish surprise from today’s WASDE report. Ethanol use increased 50 million bushels, and corn exports increased 150 million bushels. With no changes to the supply numbers this month, the 200 million bushel increase to corn demand fell straight to the bottom line, lowering the US corn carryout total from 1.938 to 1.738 billion bushels. The 200 million bushel reduction to US carryout was larger than trade expected and helped corn prices move higher following the report release. We had a 1-Box Sell Signal for corn trigger this morning. Following the favorable USDA supply demand adjustment and the higher price move, we are ready to increase our recommendation on this Sell Signal to 10% of 2024 production. That brings our total recommendation for 2024 corn to 80%. Roach Ag Corn sales recommendations: 2023 – 100% sold 2024 – 80% sold The USDA made no changes to their monthly supply demand table for US soybeans. US wheat carryout declined 20 million bushels this month following a 25 million bushel increase to exports (offset by a 5 million increase to imports). The slightly reduced wheat carryout of 795 million bushels was still +14% above last year. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts May 2024 USDA Supply & Demand This month’s WASDE report was surprisingly bullish for US corn and wheat, with old and new crop carryout estimates of both coming in smaller than trade expectations. Prices of corn and all three wheat crops continued to move higher shortly after the report release. Lean into these continued rallies by making more sales of corn and all three classes of wheat. We were previously at 20% old crop and 10% new crop. Add another increment of 10% to old crop, and 5% to new crop sales. The USDA made some cuts to their South American production estimates, but overall, they cuts were smaller than trade expected. Thus, the USDA continues to lower their South American production estimates at a conservative pace. Corn The USDA cut 100 million bushels from their old crop (2023-24) US carryout estimate, which was 78 million below the average trade estimate. Then the first 2024-25 carryout estimate for US corn came in 182 million bushels less than trade expected. The new crop production estimates begin with assumptions of 90.0 million acres planted and a 181.0 bpa ... June 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Nothing jumped out as a headline in USDA reports The government didn’t change anybody’s mind with their numbers this month. The USDA only made small adjustments to their US and global supply demand numbers this month. The one area trade expected changes, in South American production, they continued to stick to their guns of higher production numbers. The USDA is not ready to follow the private South American estimates lower. We are heading into the important part of the US crop growing season. It is hard to get crops rated much better than 75% good to excellent. Normally crop ratings will only go down from here, but ratings are still expected to be good again this week. Expect choppy trade to continue. USDA US Summary The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks ... December USDA Supply & Demand December 2020 USDA Supply & Demand: USDA cuts bean stocks slightly. Corn left unchanged. The USDA delivered a typical December WASDE report. They acknowledged the faster than expected pace of domestic crush and raised crush by 15 million bushels. Surprisingly, exports were left unchanged. U.S. corn estimates were left unchanged. U.S. wheat imports were reduced by 5 million bushels and exports were increased 10 million bushels, leaving carryout 15 million bushels smaller. The USDA reduced Argentine corn and beans production by 1 million metric tons each. Brazil production was left unchanged. After further analysis, this report was a non-event. Without new bullish fundamental news to support a rally, we could see markets rollover as funds exit winning positions before the end of the year. Get ready for Buy Signals in corn and beans. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX December USDA Supply/Demand The USDA made few changes to their supply demand numbers in the December WASDE report. They made no changes to their US wheat and soybean supply demand numbers. They cut US corn exports by 75 million bushels, acknowledging the slow pace of corn sales and shipments. This increased their US corn carryout total by 75 million bushels. There were few changes to the world supply demand numbers. Beans and wheat were largely unchanged from last month. The world corn carryout total was reduced by 2.36 million tons (-0.8%), which was the largest change made to the world numbers. The USDA also left their South American production estimates unchanged this month. Friday’s USDA report had very limited impact on prices. Even though the government cut exports, the corn market traded higher following the release of the numbers. Soybeans also were able to move higher after the numbers came out, but wheat prices slid on the lack of improved numbers. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... September 2024 USDA Supply & Demand The changes this month from the USDA were mostly minor adjustments from their August estimates, particularly with soybeans and wheat, which both saw little to no changes from last month. In the end US carryout totals for corn and soybeans both declined this month, while US wheat carryout remained unchanged. For corn, the direction of change was not in line with pre-report trade expectations. While traders forecast the USDA to make cuts to their US corn acreage and yield estimates, the agency left corn harvested acreage unchanged and increased their corn yield estimate half a bushel higher. The result was a US corn production of 15.186 billion bushels, 39 million larger than last month. However, incoming stocks were reduced by 55 million bushels, which canceled out the larger production total and left US 2024-25 new crop corn carryout at 4.586 billion bushels, 16 million smaller than August. Global corn carryout was down from last month but larger than trade expectations. The USDA left US soybean harvested acreage and yield unchanged this month. Beginning stocks were down 5 million bushels and ... Comments are closed.