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News and USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments, as well as featured article by Roach Ag Daily Grain Plan editors and writers.

John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

May 2024 USDA Supply & Demand

This month’s WASDE report was surprisingly bullish for US corn and wheat, with old and new crop carryout estimates of both coming in smaller than trade expectations. Prices of corn and all three wheat crops continued to move higher shortly after the report release.

Lean into these continued rallies by making more sales of corn and all three classes of wheat. We were previously at 20% old crop and 10% new crop.

Add another increment of 10% to old crop, and 5% to new crop sales.

The USDA made some cuts to their South American production estimates, but overall, they cuts were smaller than trade expected. Thus, the USDA continues to lower their South American production estimates at a conservative pace.


The USDA cut 100 million bushels from their old crop (2023-24) US carryout estimate, which was 78 million below the average trade estimate.

Then the first 2024-25 carryout estimate for US corn came in 182 million bushels less than trade expected. The new crop production estimates begin with assumptions of 90.0 million acres planted and a 181.0 bpa trend line yield. The USDA made upward adjustments to Feed and Residual and Exports compared to the current year, while leaving ethanol production unchanged. This put the demand total for the new crop year 100 million bushels above the current crop year.


US soybean carryout for the 2023-24 old crop year was unchanged from last month, which was in line with expectations. For the 2024-25 new crop year, the USDA’s first US soybean carryout estimate was 445 million bushels, which exceeded trade expectations. This is an ample soybean carryout total for the new crop year. Bean prices initially dropped following the report, before recovering and moving a few cents higher.

The USDA assumed 86.5 million acres of soybeans will be planted, and their initial yield estimate for the 2024-25 new crop year was 52.0 bpa. Imports were down, while crush and exports both increased compared to the current year estimates.


The USDA lowered their 2023-24 wheat carryout estimate by 10 million bushels this month, when trade expected them to essentially leave it unchanged. Their 2024-25 new crop wheat carryout came in 20 million bushels below the average trade estimate. These two smaller than expected carryout estimates continued to support the current wheat rally, which was largely stimulated by widespread freeze damage in Russia.

Wheat prices were higher following the report. Add to your wheat sales.

New crop wheat production was estimated at 1.858 billion bushels, which was 26 million less than trade expected.

Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX

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