9 May May 2024 USDA Supply & Demand May 9, 2024 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 This month’s WASDE report was surprisingly bullish for US corn and wheat, with old and new crop carryout estimates of both coming in smaller than trade expectations. Prices of corn and all three wheat crops continued to move higher shortly after the report release. Lean into these continued rallies by making more sales of corn and all three classes of wheat. We were previously at 20% old crop and 10% new crop. Add another increment of 10% to old crop, and 5% to new crop sales. The USDA made some cuts to their South American production estimates, but overall, they cuts were smaller than trade expected. Thus, the USDA continues to lower their South American production estimates at a conservative pace. Corn The USDA cut 100 million bushels from their old crop (2023-24) US carryout estimate, which was 78 million below the average trade estimate. Then the first 2024-25 carryout estimate for US corn came in 182 million bushels less than trade expected. The new crop production estimates begin with assumptions of 90.0 million acres planted and a 181.0 bpa trend line yield. The USDA made upward adjustments to Feed and Residual and Exports compared to the current year, while leaving ethanol production unchanged. This put the demand total for the new crop year 100 million bushels above the current crop year. Soybeans US soybean carryout for the 2023-24 old crop year was unchanged from last month, which was in line with expectations. For the 2024-25 new crop year, the USDA’s first US soybean carryout estimate was 445 million bushels, which exceeded trade expectations. This is an ample soybean carryout total for the new crop year. Bean prices initially dropped following the report, before recovering and moving a few cents higher. The USDA assumed 86.5 million acres of soybeans will be planted, and their initial yield estimate for the 2024-25 new crop year was 52.0 bpa. Imports were down, while crush and exports both increased compared to the current year estimates. Wheat The USDA lowered their 2023-24 wheat carryout estimate by 10 million bushels this month, when trade expected them to essentially leave it unchanged. Their 2024-25 new crop wheat carryout came in 20 million bushels below the average trade estimate. These two smaller than expected carryout estimates continued to support the current wheat rally, which was largely stimulated by widespread freeze damage in Russia. Wheat prices were higher following the report. Add to your wheat sales. New crop wheat production was estimated at 1.858 billion bushels, which was 26 million less than trade expected. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Related Posts June 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Nothing jumped out as a headline in USDA reports The government didn’t change anybody’s mind with their numbers this month. The USDA only made small adjustments to their US and global supply demand numbers this month. The one area trade expected changes, in South American production, they continued to stick to their guns of higher production numbers. The USDA is not ready to follow the private South American estimates lower. We are heading into the important part of the US crop growing season. It is hard to get crops rated much better than 75% good to excellent. Normally crop ratings will only go down from here, but ratings are still expected to be good again this week. Expect choppy trade to continue. USDA US Summary The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks ... July 2024 USDA Supply & Demand We were buyers this week. We have corn, soybeans, and wheat in Extended 3-Box Buy Signals. We have been telling livestock feeders and users it is time to accumulate. Grain prices are well below any price buyers budgeted earlier in the year. Corn The USDA’s analysis of the stocks and all positions report caused them to increase corn usage estimates for the bushels in the bin, cutting 2023-24 corn stocks 120 million bushels below the lowest trade guess. The average trade guess expected the USDA to increase corn stocks by 27 million bushels. The USDA also increased usage by 100 million bushels for the new crop year and left the yield estimate unchanged. Their estimate today pegs ending stocks as of August 31, 2025, at 2.097 billion bushels, 215 below the average trade estimate. World corn carryout increased slightly from the June estimate. Cheap grain increases usage. We are not trying to make a bullish argument, although we believe prices are cheap enough and have adjusted to current surplus fundamentals. Weather is the biggest uncertainty. Soybeans Very small changes were made ... March 2024 USDA Supply & Demand USDA reduced world crop surplus. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX US 2023-24 grain carryout was left unchanged from last month except for a slight increase in wheat. As we’ve outlined in recent webinars, the USDA has not changed supply demand tables hardly at all since we began receiving them in May. World carryout was reduced for each of the three crops we follow. In each case, production was slightly smaller and consumption was increased, thereby decreasing carryout. The USDA is still using a bigger corn and bean production estimates for South America than most of the private estimates, so these stock estimates will likely be reduced next month. Twenty minutes after the report was released, corn, beans, and wheat were all sitting near their respective highs for the day. Corn moved solidly above the green line 20-day moving average. Look for a Sell Signal on Monday. We have been waiting for this corn Sell Signal but hate the price level. Keep your sales small on Monday. If you need to generate cash, make sales. If you want to dribble out a few bushels ... February 2024 USDA Supply & Demand The February USDA reports released Thursday was expected to be largely neutral, and the futures market’s immediate reaction appeared to confirm the predictions. The ripple effect of the USDA’s bearish forecast on Brazilian soybeans in comparison to Conab’s more-aggressive cuts left futures stuck in place for a while as analysts weighed the ripple effect on U.S. exports and ending stocks. Wheat futures quickly lost a dime or more while corn was little changed as well at midday. Corn: U.S. ending stocks were increased to 2.172 billion bushels (bbu) based on lower domestic use while global production was reduced on declines in Brazil and Mexico. Foreign The average price projection was unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. Soybeans: Slower exports cut the export forecast for the year by 35 MMT from January, leading to a new total of 1.72 bbu. Ending stocks were raised to 315 million bushels as the crush forecast remained unchanged, trimming the average price to $12.65 per bushel. Wheat: U.S. wheat supplies for 2023-24 were projected at stable with exports little changed at 725 mbu. Ending stocks were raised to 658 ... April 2024 USDA Supply & Demand USDA report contained only small adjustments this month Traders see today’s fundamental forecast showing more than adequate supplies and ending stocks. The South American corn crop is still at risk and the USDA has refused to lower their estimate as far as private trade estimates have fallen. All of the northern hemisphere crops are into their risk periods. We have written virtually that same paragraph following each one of the most recent reports. The numbers have not really changed much since last fall, except the South American crops turned out to be smaller than expected. Today’s fundamentals have been well traded in recent weeks. There were no surprises today. Now we are all focused don’t he growing conditions in all the major production areas in the world, especially the United States. Most areas are off to a pretty good start but it is just April and too soon to tell how good crops are going to be. Today’s fundamentals tell traders that prices will be cheap this fall if we don’t have any weather problems in the United States or some ... January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... Comments are closed.