11 July July 2024 USDA Supply & Demand July 11, 2024 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 We were buyers this week. We have corn, soybeans, and wheat in Extended 3-Box Buy Signals. We have been telling livestock feeders and users it is time to accumulate. Grain prices are well below any price buyers budgeted earlier in the year. Corn The USDA’s analysis of the stocks and all positions report caused them to increase corn usage estimates for the bushels in the bin, cutting 2023-24 corn stocks 120 million bushels below the lowest trade guess. The average trade guess expected the USDA to increase corn stocks by 27 million bushels. The USDA also increased usage by 100 million bushels for the new crop year and left the yield estimate unchanged. Their estimate today pegs ending stocks as of August 31, 2025, at 2.097 billion bushels, 215 below the average trade estimate. World corn carryout increased slightly from the June estimate. Cheap grain increases usage. We are not trying to make a bullish argument, although we believe prices are cheap enough and have adjusted to current surplus fundamentals. Weather is the biggest uncertainty. Soybeans Very small changes were made this month, and the net result is the USDA expects US ending stocks this fall to total 345 million bushels. Their forecast is for the US to have 435 million bushels, 100 million more, left in the bin a year from now, not a positive fundamental outlook. On the technical side, spec funds are loaded up on shorts. World carryout was virtually unchanged, down less than a quarter of a ton from the June estimate. Wheat US wheat supplies were raised on increased wheat production and beginning stocks. All wheat production is raised 134 million bushels to 2,008 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields. Ending stocks were also increased 98 million bushels for the 2024-25 crop. World wheat carryout increased just under 5 million metric tons. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Related Posts July 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production July USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: The biggest USDA surprise is smaller wheat carry out. Notice the corn and bean yield estimates released today are unchanged from June. US wheat production came in at 1.746 billion bushels, down 152 million bushels from last month. U.S. winter wheat production was increased by 55 million bushels, while the initial spring wheat estimate was 114 million bushels lower than the average trade estimate. The 2020-21 carryout in corn was reduced 25 million bushels from the last report, while beans were left unchanged. 2021-22 carryout was increased for corn by 75 million bushels. Soybeans were left unchanged. Wheat carryover was reduced by 105 million bushels. Bullish traders will be disappointed that the USDA did not give us a substantially tightened supply. But as you can see from the ending stocks graphs below, U.S. supplies are still relatively tight, with little room for new business. Our Buy Signals in corn and winter wheat have proven to be timely. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters The USDA estimates the spring wheat yield at 30.7 bushels per acre, ... May 2024 USDA Supply & Demand This month’s WASDE report was surprisingly bullish for US corn and wheat, with old and new crop carryout estimates of both coming in smaller than trade expectations. Prices of corn and all three wheat crops continued to move higher shortly after the report release. Lean into these continued rallies by making more sales of corn and all three classes of wheat. We were previously at 20% old crop and 10% new crop. Add another increment of 10% to old crop, and 5% to new crop sales. The USDA made some cuts to their South American production estimates, but overall, they cuts were smaller than trade expected. Thus, the USDA continues to lower their South American production estimates at a conservative pace. Corn The USDA cut 100 million bushels from their old crop (2023-24) US carryout estimate, which was 78 million below the average trade estimate. Then the first 2024-25 carryout estimate for US corn came in 182 million bushels less than trade expected. The new crop production estimates begin with assumptions of 90.0 million acres planted and a 181.0 bpa ... July 2023 USDA Supply & Demand USDA lowered US corn yield estimate but left beans unchanged The USDA lowered their US corn yield estimate from 181.5 to 177.5 bushels per acre this month, while they left their US bean yield estimate unchanged at 52.0 bpa. Trade was expecting lower yield estimates for both (176.6 & 51.4 bpa, respectively). This put their 2023 production estimates above trade expectations. The USDA estimates for next year’s carryout (2023-24) were larger than trade expected for corn, beans, and wheat. Of note, their 2023-24 soybean carryout estimate was 300 million bushels, 50% above the 199 million bushel average trade estimate. Soybean prices dropped 40 cents lower on the larger than expected bean carryout. In South America, the USDA offset changes in corn production by lowering their Argentine estimate 1 million tons at the same time they increased their Brazilian corn production estimate 1 million tons. They left their South American soybean production estimates unchanged from last month. Total wheat 2023-24 wheat production was larger than trade expected. The USDA increased their total wheat production estimate by 74 million bushels to 1.739 ... December 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Strong corn demand improved the balance sheet beyond expectations Strong demand totals for corn provided a bullish surprise from today’s WASDE report. Ethanol use increased 50 million bushels, and corn exports increased 150 million bushels. With no changes to the supply numbers this month, the 200 million bushel increase to corn demand fell straight to the bottom line, lowering the US corn carryout total from 1.938 to 1.738 billion bushels. The 200 million bushel reduction to US carryout was larger than trade expected and helped corn prices move higher following the report release. We had a 1-Box Sell Signal for corn trigger this morning. Following the favorable USDA supply demand adjustment and the higher price move, we are ready to increase our recommendation on this Sell Signal to 10% of 2024 production. That brings our total recommendation for 2024 corn to 80%. Roach Ag Corn sales recommendations: 2023 – 100% sold 2024 – 80% sold The USDA made no changes to their monthly supply demand table for US soybeans. US wheat carryout declined 20 million bushels this month following a 25 million bushel increase ... June 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Nothing jumped out as a headline in USDA reports The government didn’t change anybody’s mind with their numbers this month. The USDA only made small adjustments to their US and global supply demand numbers this month. The one area trade expected changes, in South American production, they continued to stick to their guns of higher production numbers. The USDA is not ready to follow the private South American estimates lower. We are heading into the important part of the US crop growing season. It is hard to get crops rated much better than 75% good to excellent. Normally crop ratings will only go down from here, but ratings are still expected to be good again this week. Expect choppy trade to continue. USDA US Summary The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks ... July USDA Supply & Demand USDA numbers slightly larger than expected All the key USDA numbers from today’s reports were in line with the average trade estimate. However, each estimate, except for Brazilian corn, was slightly larger than trade expected. But none of the larger estimates were big enough to allow for production cuts due to weather. Soybean new crop ending stocks fell 50 million bushels to 230 million bushels, due to the June 30 smaller acreage estimate. The number was still 19 million above trade expectations. The USDA did not change their corn or bean yield estimates this month. The only change the USDA made to their South American production estimates was in Argentine soybeans, where they increased their estimate slightly. There was nothing in the reports to excite traders. Markets have been unable to get up to the green line 20-day moving average this week. This promises to bring more technical selling. Comments are closed.