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News and USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments, as well as featured article by Roach Ag Daily Grain Plan editors and writers.

John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

June 2024 USDA Supply & Demand

Nothing jumped out as a headline in USDA reports

The government didn’t change anybody’s mind with their numbers this month. The USDA only made small adjustments to their US and global supply demand numbers this month. The one area trade expected changes, in South American production, they continued to stick to their guns of higher production numbers. The USDA is not ready to follow the private South American estimates lower.

We are heading into the important part of the US crop growing season. It is hard to get crops rated much better than 75% good to excellent. Normally crop ratings will only go down from here, but ratings are still expected to be good again this week.

Expect choppy trade to continue.

USDA US Summary

The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.

The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced crush for 2023/24, down 10 million bushels on lower soybean meal domestic use that is partly offset by higher exports. Soybean oil domestic use is also lowered for 2023/24 and partly offset by higher exports. With increased supplies for 2024/25 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 455 million bushels, up 10 million.

The soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged, at $330 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively.

The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower stocks. Supplies are raised as all wheat production is forecast at 1,875 million bushels, up 17 million from last month on higher Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting reductions in Soft Red Winter and White Winter.

The all wheat yield is 49.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from last month. The export forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 800 million, as U.S. wheat prices are expected to be increasingly competitive with reduced exportable Black Sea supplies. Ending stocks are lowered slightly to 758 million bushels but still significantly higher than the previous year. The 2024/25 season-average farm price is raised $0.50 per bushel to $6.50 on higher expected futures and cash prices and tightening global wheat supplies.

Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX

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