10 July July 2025 USDA Supply & Demand July 10, 2025 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 Projections for U.S. corn and soybean production declined slightly from the previous month in the USDA Crop Production report released on Friday. Modest reductions in harvested acres offset steady yield estimates and trimmed the forecast modestly but totals still met analyst expectations and were considered unsurprising overall. Some analysts suspected the USDA was holding off on making significant increases until the August report. In addition, the market likely got a jump on Friday’s report from the stocks and acreage reports released at the end of June. Corn production was estimated at 15.705 billion bushels (bbu), down from the June forecast of 15.820 bbu. Analysts had anticipated the decline; the June figure was still below the median estimate but within the range of estimates. The carryout for 2024-25 corn fell to 1.340 bbu from 1.365 bbu and was lower than expected. Brazil’s corn production for 2024-25 was lowered to 132 million metric tons (MT) from 132.4 million MT in June and was unchanged for 2025-26 at 131 million MT. This year’s soybean production in the United States was down slightly from the June projection at 4.335 bbu and in line with expectations. Yields held steady as did the 2024-25 U.S. carryout at 0.350 bbu. Brazil’s estimated soybean production remained at 169.00 million MT after analysts anticipated a slight increase to 169.25 million MT. Wheat production estimates were lowered in multiple categories, including winter wheat at 1.35 bbu, down 3% from the June forecast but only 1% lower than last year. The yield forecast, as of July 1, was 0.5% higher than in June at 54.2 bushels per acre (bpa) and 2.5 bushels higher than last year. Production of hard red winter wheat was down 4% from June and durum off less than 1%. Spring wheat was projected at 7% lower than last year at 504 million bushels with a slight decline in yields to 51.7 bpa. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts July 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production July USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: The biggest USDA surprise is smaller wheat carry out. Notice the corn and bean yield estimates released today are unchanged from June. US wheat production came in at 1.746 billion bushels, down 152 million bushels from last month. U.S. winter wheat production was increased by 55 million bushels, while the initial spring wheat estimate was 114 million bushels lower than the average trade estimate. The 2020-21 carryout in corn was reduced 25 million bushels from the last report, while beans were left unchanged. 2021-22 carryout was increased for corn by 75 million bushels. Soybeans were left unchanged. Wheat carryover was reduced by 105 million bushels. Bullish traders will be disappointed that the USDA did not give us a substantially tightened supply. But as you can see from the ending stocks graphs below, U.S. supplies are still relatively tight, with little room for new business. Our Buy Signals in corn and winter wheat have proven to be timely. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters The USDA estimates the spring wheat yield at 30.7 bushels per acre, ... July 2023 USDA Supply & Demand USDA lowered US corn yield estimate but left beans unchanged The USDA lowered their US corn yield estimate from 181.5 to 177.5 bushels per acre this month, while they left their US bean yield estimate unchanged at 52.0 bpa. Trade was expecting lower yield estimates for both (176.6 & 51.4 bpa, respectively). This put their 2023 production estimates above trade expectations. The USDA estimates for next year’s carryout (2023-24) were larger than trade expected for corn, beans, and wheat. Of note, their 2023-24 soybean carryout estimate was 300 million bushels, 50% above the 199 million bushel average trade estimate. Soybean prices dropped 40 cents lower on the larger than expected bean carryout. In South America, the USDA offset changes in corn production by lowering their Argentine estimate 1 million tons at the same time they increased their Brazilian corn production estimate 1 million tons. They left their South American soybean production estimates unchanged from last month. Total wheat 2023-24 wheat production was larger than trade expected. The USDA increased their total wheat production estimate by 74 million bushels to 1.739 ... June 2025 USDA Supply & Demand The monthly June USDA reports were largely sleepers as expected. We’ll have to wait for the June 30 Acreage and Stocks, which have the potential to be more exciting. First off, the USDA left their soybean supply demand tables completely unchanged from the May values. Second, while trade expected the agency to adjust Brazilian corn production higher, the USDA also left all their South American production estimates unchanged this month. The corn balance sheet saw the largest changes, but they were relatively small and completely within the range of trade estimates. Beginning stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels, which was based on Census Bureau data. Useage was left unchanged, which lowered US 2025-26 corn carryout from 1.800 billion bushels to 1.750 billion bushels. The changes in the wheat supply demand tables were even smaller than corn. Exports were increased by 25 million bushels, which lowered 2025-26 US wheat ending stocks by the same amount to 898 million bushels. The global supply demand tables received only small adjustments, with corn carryout dropping 2.6 million tons (<1%), soybeans increasing less than ... July USDA Supply & Demand USDA numbers slightly larger than expected All the key USDA numbers from today’s reports were in line with the average trade estimate. However, each estimate, except for Brazilian corn, was slightly larger than trade expected. But none of the larger estimates were big enough to allow for production cuts due to weather. Soybean new crop ending stocks fell 50 million bushels to 230 million bushels, due to the June 30 smaller acreage estimate. The number was still 19 million above trade expectations. The USDA did not change their corn or bean yield estimates this month. The only change the USDA made to their South American production estimates was in Argentine soybeans, where they increased their estimate slightly. There was nothing in the reports to excite traders. Markets have been unable to get up to the green line 20-day moving average this week. This promises to bring more technical selling. April 2025 USDA Supply & Demand Overall, there were no major changes in today’s USDA old crop supply demand tables. The numbers were most favorable to corn, as US and world carryout both shrank a bit more than trade expected. Changes to the soybean numbers were negligible, while US wheat carryout increased more than expected. The USDA left their South American production estimates unchanged this month. Thirty minutes after the reports, prices across our crop markets were largely the same as they were five minutes before the reports. Traders seem to have shrugged at this round of reports. The May reports will be more important as they will include 2025-26 new crop supply demand tables. As expected, the USDA lowered their US and world carryout estimates for 2024-25 old crop corn. The US corn carryout was 75 million bushels smaller than their March estimate, which was a bigger reduction than the average trade estimate forecast. The smaller US corn ending stocks were largely due to a 100 million bushel increase in exports. World corn carryout was 1.25 million tons (49 million bushels) smaller than March. The US ... March 2025 USDA Supply & Demand As expected, the USDA made only a few changes to their supply demand tables this month. First, they left US corn and soybean balance sheets essentially unchanged. Trade had expected US corn ending stocks to tighten slightly, so that could be seen as a slight disappointment. For US wheat, the USDA called for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, and lower exports which increased US wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels. Global corn and soybean ending stocks both tightened a bit this month, while global wheat stocks increased slightly. The drop in global soybean ending stocks fell below the low end of trade estimates, so this would be the second small surprise of the day. Increased crush totals explained the change in world soybean carryout. The USDA chose to leave its South American production estimates unchanged this month, which was in line with trade expectations. Our analysis will be available shortly. Comments are closed.