Related Posts

• March 2021 USDA Supply & Demand

  USDA leaves U.S. numbers mostly unchanged and tightened world wheat numbers slightly Traders’ initial reaction to USDA numbers put pressure on corn and beans but boosted wheat prices. As you can see from the tables below, U.S. carryover numbers were unchanged from last month. World corn and bean carryover numbers were just slightly changed. World wheat carryover declined by 3 million tons. South American crops were little changed. Brazilian bean production was increased by 1 million tons.   Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX
• March USDA Supply & Demand

  The USDA did not offer any surprises today. Grain usage estimates were in line with traders’ expectations. In South America, the Argentine corn and bean crops were right in line with what trade expected. In Brazil, the soybean crop was 2 million tons smaller and corn crop 1 million ton larger than the average trade forecast. Most traders think the USDA will reduce the Brazilian bean crop further in subsequent reports. Source: USDA, StoneX, Bloomberg The USDA report did not take traders’ attention away from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  News reports Wednesday indicate more intense negotiations for a settlement were being facilitated by Israel. Facing an onslaught of Russian destruction alone, Ukraine is being encouraged to negotiate a settlement. Commodity traders are betting that will occur, as of this writing. It is not too late to plant a crop there, and crop prices are reacting accordingly.   They may see the Ukraine situation differently tomorrow. Source: USDA, StoneX
• March 2024 USDA Supply & Demand

  USDA reduced world crop surplus. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX US 2023-24 grain carryout was left unchanged from last month except for a slight increase in wheat. As we’ve outlined in recent webinars, the USDA has not changed supply demand tables hardly at all since we began receiving them in May. World carryout was reduced for each of the three crops we follow. In each case, production was slightly smaller and consumption was increased, thereby decreasing carryout. The USDA is still using a bigger corn and bean production estimates for South America than most of the private estimates, so these stock estimates will likely be reduced next month. Twenty minutes after the report was released, corn, beans, and wheat were all sitting near their respective highs for the day. Corn moved solidly above the green line 20-day moving average. Look for a Sell Signal on Monday. We have been waiting for this corn Sell Signal but hate the price level. Keep your sales small on Monday. If you need to generate cash, make sales. If you want to dribble out a few bushels ...
• March USDA Supply & Demand

  U.S. Corn Carryout Grows while Argentine Crops Shrink Today’s USDA Supply & Demand report was a mixed bag of information. U.S. Corn exports were reduced 75 million bushels from the February estimate, leading to a larger than expected jump in domestic ending stocks. On the other hand, Argentina’s corn production estimate was reduced 3 million tons more than expected. The bean numbers were bullish, causing an initial jump in futures prices that has since cooled off (as of this writing). A 10 million bushel cut to U.S. crush was more than offset by a 25 million bushel increase in exports, leading to a net reduction in ending stocks of 15 million bushels. Pre-report trade was expecting just a slight 5 million bushel decrease in carryout. Argentina bean production was reduced from 41 million tons to 33 million, smaller than the average trade guess of 36.55. The U.S. wheat balance sheet was left unchanged. World wheat supplies shrank slightly, though that cut was largely attributed to an adjustment to China’s 20/21 feed and residual use carried through to world new crop ...
• January 2025 USDA Supply & Demand, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings

  The January reports were bullish in general. The USDA lowered their yield estimates for US corn and soybeans, pulling both down below the low end of the trade range. The corn yield was cut 3.8 bpa to 179.3 bpa, while the soybean yield was cut 1 bpa to 50.7 bpa. The end result was that corn and soybean carryout also came in below the smallest trade estimates. The US corn carryout dropped to 1.540 billion bushels (-198 million), while soybeans dropped to 380 million bushels (-90 million). Markets surged higher on the bullish reports. The Sell Signal in soybeans resumed on the price surge. We recommend leaning into these Sell Signals and adding to your recent sales. If you sold up to our recommended levels, add another 5% on this rally. If you aren’t sold up to our recommended levels, use this opportunity to catch up. Although we are happy to receive the smaller numbers, we are cautious because stocks are still expected to be large and South America’s harvest has already begun. We are also about ready to get ...
• February 2025 USDA Supply & Demand

  The USDA made some minimal tweaks to its U.S. carryout estimates in its February WASDE report while making some cuts to corn and soybean forecasts for South America. The February report released Tuesday left its ending stocks estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans unchanged from the January report, which tripped up some analysts who had predicted reductions for both. Analysts said it appeared the report overall was not particularly controversial although the reductions in South America’s corn and soybean production could encourage the bulls while waiting The report kept the corn carryout at 1.54 billion bushels (bbu) as opposed to the analysts’ average of 1.52 bbu. The soybean estimate was unchanged at 380 million bushels (mbu) compared to the prediction of 374 mbu. The wheat ending stocks for the United States were lowered to 794 mbu from 798 mbu in January. Global ending stocks were lower than in January and came in below expectations: Corn fell to 290.31 million metric tons (MT) worldwide from 293.34 million MT in the January report and missed the average projection of 292.52 million MT. Soybean ending ...