7 March March 2024 USDA Supply & Demand March 7, 2024 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 USDA reduced world crop surplus. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX US 2023-24 grain carryout was left unchanged from last month except for a slight increase in wheat. As we’ve outlined in recent webinars, the USDA has not changed supply demand tables hardly at all since we began receiving them in May. World carryout was reduced for each of the three crops we follow. In each case, production was slightly smaller and consumption was increased, thereby decreasing carryout. The USDA is still using a bigger corn and bean production estimates for South America than most of the private estimates, so these stock estimates will likely be reduced next month. Twenty minutes after the report was released, corn, beans, and wheat were all sitting near their respective highs for the day. Corn moved solidly above the green line 20-day moving average. Look for a Sell Signal on Monday. We have been waiting for this corn Sell Signal but hate the price level. Keep your sales small on Monday. If you need to generate cash, make sales. If you want to dribble out a few bushels of new crop that is OK too. We will be more willing sellers on the Sell Signal following this one. Related Posts May 2024 USDA Supply & Demand This month’s WASDE report was surprisingly bullish for US corn and wheat, with old and new crop carryout estimates of both coming in smaller than trade expectations. Prices of corn and all three wheat crops continued to move higher shortly after the report release. Lean into these continued rallies by making more sales of corn and all three classes of wheat. We were previously at 20% old crop and 10% new crop. Add another increment of 10% to old crop, and 5% to new crop sales. The USDA made some cuts to their South American production estimates, but overall, they cuts were smaller than trade expected. Thus, the USDA continues to lower their South American production estimates at a conservative pace. Corn The USDA cut 100 million bushels from their old crop (2023-24) US carryout estimate, which was 78 million below the average trade estimate. Then the first 2024-25 carryout estimate for US corn came in 182 million bushels less than trade expected. The new crop production estimates begin with assumptions of 90.0 million acres planted and a 181.0 bpa ... June 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Nothing jumped out as a headline in USDA reports The government didn’t change anybody’s mind with their numbers this month. The USDA only made small adjustments to their US and global supply demand numbers this month. The one area trade expected changes, in South American production, they continued to stick to their guns of higher production numbers. The USDA is not ready to follow the private South American estimates lower. We are heading into the important part of the US crop growing season. It is hard to get crops rated much better than 75% good to excellent. Normally crop ratings will only go down from here, but ratings are still expected to be good again this week. Expect choppy trade to continue. USDA US Summary The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks ... March 2021 USDA Supply & Demand USDA leaves U.S. numbers mostly unchanged and tightened world wheat numbers slightly Traders’ initial reaction to USDA numbers put pressure on corn and beans but boosted wheat prices. As you can see from the tables below, U.S. carryover numbers were unchanged from last month. World corn and bean carryover numbers were just slightly changed. World wheat carryover declined by 3 million tons. South American crops were little changed. Brazilian bean production was increased by 1 million tons. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX September 2024 USDA Supply & Demand The changes this month from the USDA were mostly minor adjustments from their August estimates, particularly with soybeans and wheat, which both saw little to no changes from last month. In the end US carryout totals for corn and soybeans both declined this month, while US wheat carryout remained unchanged. For corn, the direction of change was not in line with pre-report trade expectations. While traders forecast the USDA to make cuts to their US corn acreage and yield estimates, the agency left corn harvested acreage unchanged and increased their corn yield estimate half a bushel higher. The result was a US corn production of 15.186 billion bushels, 39 million larger than last month. However, incoming stocks were reduced by 55 million bushels, which canceled out the larger production total and left US 2024-25 new crop corn carryout at 4.586 billion bushels, 16 million smaller than August. Global corn carryout was down from last month but larger than trade expectations. The USDA left US soybean harvested acreage and yield unchanged this month. Beginning stocks were down 5 million bushels and ... March USDA Supply & Demand The USDA did not offer any surprises today. Grain usage estimates were in line with traders’ expectations. In South America, the Argentine corn and bean crops were right in line with what trade expected. In Brazil, the soybean crop was 2 million tons smaller and corn crop 1 million ton larger than the average trade forecast. Most traders think the USDA will reduce the Brazilian bean crop further in subsequent reports. Source: USDA, StoneX, Bloomberg The USDA report did not take traders’ attention away from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. News reports Wednesday indicate more intense negotiations for a settlement were being facilitated by Israel. Facing an onslaught of Russian destruction alone, Ukraine is being encouraged to negotiate a settlement. Commodity traders are betting that will occur, as of this writing. It is not too late to plant a crop there, and crop prices are reacting accordingly. They may see the Ukraine situation differently tomorrow. Source: USDA, StoneX November 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Futures jumped Friday afternoon after the USDA projections for corn and soybeans came in generally below expectations. Corn, soybeans and wheat prices moved quickly higher on numbers that turned out to be slightly more bullish than had been predicted. The USDA reduced its corn crop projection by 60 million bushels (mbu) from last month’s report to 15.143 billion bushels, 1% lower than last year. The report left the acreage projection unchanged at 82.7 million acres and made a slight reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per harvested acre (bpa). In addition, ethanol use was unchanged at 4.45 billion bushels. Soybean production was reduced by 3%, or 121 mbu, from the October forecast to 4.461 billion bushels, which would still be a record high. Yields were cut to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month while acreage was unchanged from last month’s estimate of 86.3 million acres, but still 5% higher than 2023. The smaller crop was, however, predicted to trim U.S. soybean ending stocks to what one analyst called a “more manageable 470 mbu.” Corn stocks were expected to shrink to 1.93 billion bushels. The ... Comments are closed.