12 May May 2025 USDA Supply & Demand May 12, 2025 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 The USDA’s first look at the 2025-26 crop year balance sheets was favorable for both corn and soybeans. New crop corn carryout came in at 1.8 billion bushels and new crop soybean carryout was 295 million bushels. Both domestic carryout totals were below the average trade estimates, falling to the low end of the trade range. The global corn and soybean carryout totals for 2025-26 were also at the low end of the trade range. For corn, the global carryout of 277.8 million tons was even smaller than the lowest trade estimate. Combined with the weekend news of a 90-day rollback of US-China tariffs, we are starting the new trading week on a positive note with some optimism ahead. It is possible that the Administration will also offer some biofuel guidance in the next week or two, to build further upon this optimism. The wheat numbers had a less optimistic tone as domestic and global wheat carryout for the 2025-26 crop year were larger than the average trade estimate. The USDA finally quit dragging their feet on South American production estimates and increased their Brazilian corn production estimate by 4 million tons to 130 million tons. Be ready to sell the next round of Sell Signals. Soybeans could trigger a Sell Signal this week. We will give you a call when it is time to sell. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts June 2025 USDA Supply & Demand The monthly June USDA reports were largely sleepers as expected. We’ll have to wait for the June 30 Acreage and Stocks, which have the potential to be more exciting. First off, the USDA left their soybean supply demand tables completely unchanged from the May values. Second, while trade expected the agency to adjust Brazilian corn production higher, the USDA also left all their South American production estimates unchanged this month. The corn balance sheet saw the largest changes, but they were relatively small and completely within the range of trade estimates. Beginning stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels, which was based on Census Bureau data. Useage was left unchanged, which lowered US 2025-26 corn carryout from 1.800 billion bushels to 1.750 billion bushels. The changes in the wheat supply demand tables were even smaller than corn. Exports were increased by 25 million bushels, which lowered 2025-26 US wheat ending stocks by the same amount to 898 million bushels. The global supply demand tables received only small adjustments, with corn carryout dropping 2.6 million tons (<1%), soybeans increasing less than ... April 2025 USDA Supply & Demand Overall, there were no major changes in today’s USDA old crop supply demand tables. The numbers were most favorable to corn, as US and world carryout both shrank a bit more than trade expected. Changes to the soybean numbers were negligible, while US wheat carryout increased more than expected. The USDA left their South American production estimates unchanged this month. Thirty minutes after the reports, prices across our crop markets were largely the same as they were five minutes before the reports. Traders seem to have shrugged at this round of reports. The May reports will be more important as they will include 2025-26 new crop supply demand tables. As expected, the USDA lowered their US and world carryout estimates for 2024-25 old crop corn. The US corn carryout was 75 million bushels smaller than their March estimate, which was a bigger reduction than the average trade estimate forecast. The smaller US corn ending stocks were largely due to a 100 million bushel increase in exports. World corn carryout was 1.25 million tons (49 million bushels) smaller than March. The US ... March 2025 USDA Supply & Demand As expected, the USDA made only a few changes to their supply demand tables this month. First, they left US corn and soybean balance sheets essentially unchanged. Trade had expected US corn ending stocks to tighten slightly, so that could be seen as a slight disappointment. For US wheat, the USDA called for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, and lower exports which increased US wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels. Global corn and soybean ending stocks both tightened a bit this month, while global wheat stocks increased slightly. The drop in global soybean ending stocks fell below the low end of trade estimates, so this would be the second small surprise of the day. Increased crush totals explained the change in world soybean carryout. The USDA chose to leave its South American production estimates unchanged this month, which was in line with trade expectations. Our analysis will be available shortly. January 2025 USDA Supply & Demand, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings The January reports were bullish in general. The USDA lowered their yield estimates for US corn and soybeans, pulling both down below the low end of the trade range. The corn yield was cut 3.8 bpa to 179.3 bpa, while the soybean yield was cut 1 bpa to 50.7 bpa. The end result was that corn and soybean carryout also came in below the smallest trade estimates. The US corn carryout dropped to 1.540 billion bushels (-198 million), while soybeans dropped to 380 million bushels (-90 million). Markets surged higher on the bullish reports. The Sell Signal in soybeans resumed on the price surge. We recommend leaning into these Sell Signals and adding to your recent sales. If you sold up to our recommended levels, add another 5% on this rally. If you aren’t sold up to our recommended levels, use this opportunity to catch up. Although we are happy to receive the smaller numbers, we are cautious because stocks are still expected to be large and South America’s harvest has already begun. We are also about ready to get ... February 2025 USDA Supply & Demand The USDA made some minimal tweaks to its U.S. carryout estimates in its February WASDE report while making some cuts to corn and soybean forecasts for South America. The February report released Tuesday left its ending stocks estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans unchanged from the January report, which tripped up some analysts who had predicted reductions for both. Analysts said it appeared the report overall was not particularly controversial although the reductions in South America’s corn and soybean production could encourage the bulls while waiting The report kept the corn carryout at 1.54 billion bushels (bbu) as opposed to the analysts’ average of 1.52 bbu. The soybean estimate was unchanged at 380 million bushels (mbu) compared to the prediction of 374 mbu. The wheat ending stocks for the United States were lowered to 794 mbu from 798 mbu in January. Global ending stocks were lower than in January and came in below expectations: Corn fell to 290.31 million metric tons (MT) worldwide from 293.34 million MT in the January report and missed the average projection of 292.52 million MT. Soybean ending ... January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... Comments are closed.