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USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments.


John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production

USDA numbers not as big as feared

Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough.

The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month.

Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month.

The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from trade estimates and 0.6 bushels from last month’s report. Soybean production was pegged at 4.375 billion bushels, up 21 million bushels from the average trade estimate and 35 million bushels bigger than last month.

Soybean ending stocks were estimated at 185 million bushels for 2021-22. Traders expected stocks to be 5 million bushels larger. The USDA increased their bean ending stocks estimate 30 million bushels over last month.

The USDA did not change its U.S. wheat production estimate. U.S. wheat ending stocks were decreased 12 million bushels.

Click here to download the USDA’s Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing. This contains many great charts and graphs to help you understand how the USDA reached their conclusions.

Click here to download the full WASDE report.

Click here to download the full Crop Production report.

Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters

USDA Summary Text and Tables

Corn production for grain is forecast at 15.0 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 6 percent from 2020. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 176.3 bushels per harvested acre, up 1.7 bushels from the previous forecast and up 4.3 bushels from last year. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data. Total planted area, at 93.3 million acres, is up 1 percent from the previous estimate, and up 3 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 85.1 million acres, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 3 percent from the previous year.

Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.37 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 6 percent from 2020. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 50.6 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.6 bushel from the previous forecast and up 0.4 bushel from 2020. Total planted area, at 87.2 million acres, is down less than 1 percent from the previous estimate but up 5 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 86.4 million acres, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from 2020. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.

The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are reduced as imports are lowered 10 million bushels to 135 million on the import pace. Food use is raised 2 million bushels to 964 million, reflecting an upward revision of 2020/21 food use. Exports are unchanged at 875 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27 percent below last year and the lowest in eight years. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $6.60 on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.

 



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