11 August August 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production August 11, 2021 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 USDA delivers bullish reports As soon as the USDA numbers were released today, prices spiked higher. Nearly all crop production estimates and stocks tightened, and the USDA raised its price forecasts. Look for the Sell Signals in winter wheat to continue and new Sell Signals in Minneapolis wheat and corn tomorrow. We believe you should use these upcoming Sell Signals on corn (and possibly beans) to get the inventory sold that you can’t store. Wheat producers continue to maintain 30-60 days’ cash flow needs. Here is what the USDA said about the reports today: OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, and exports. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2020/21 crush and exports. Soybean production for 2021/22 is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million on lower yields. Harvested area is forecast at 86.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.0 bushels per acre is reduced 0.8 bushels from last month. Traders expected the average yield to be down 0.4 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies for 2020/21 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 3 percent from last year. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast which is reduced in line with the prior year, and lower soybean meal exports. With soybean exports down 20 million bushels on lower supplies, ending stocks are forecast at 155 million bushels, unchanged from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $13.70 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $385 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound. COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use, increased food, seed, and industrial use, lower exports, and smaller ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2021/22 are 35 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020/21. Reduced exports are partially offset by greater corn used for ethanol, starch, and glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2021/22 is forecast at 14.8 billion WASDE-615-2 bushels, down 415 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 174.6 bushels per acre, is 4.9 bushels below last month’s trend-based projection. Traders expected a 1.9 bushel reduction. Among the major producing states, today’s Crop Production report indicates that record-high yields are expected in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. In contrast, yields in Minnesota and South Dakota are forecast below a year ago. Total U.S. corn use for 2021/22 is down 190 million bushels to 14.7 billion. Feed and residual use is down 100 million bushels based mostly on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is projected higher based on observed use during 2020/21. Exports for 2021/22 are lowered 100 million bushels to 2.4 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 190 million bushels to 1.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 15 cents to $5.75 per bushel. WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. The NASS Crop Production report forecast all wheat production at 1,697 million bushels, down 49 million from the previous forecast. Most of the reduction is in Hard Red Winter and Soft White Winter. The all wheat yield is forecast at 44.5 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from the previous forecast. Feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels to 160 million on reduced supplies. Food use for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 is reduced slightly, based primarily on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. Wheat exports are unchanged but there are offsetting by-class export changes for several classes. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 38 million bushels to 627 million and are 26 percent below last year. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $6.70. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters Related Posts May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Old crop wheat and new crop corn stocks were both bigger than expected. Following the USDA reports today, wheat prices immediately slid lower. The corn market traded lower for a little bit but quickly began to recover. The bean market immediately recovered some small losses following the report. As you can see from the following table, wheat was the only crop that had a bigger carryout estimate for 2020-21 compared to trade estimates and last month’s estimates. The USDA old crop corn carryout estimate was slightly smaller than trade expected, while beans were right on target. For the first estimate of the 2021-22 new crop year, corn ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels were larger than traders expected. New crop wheat carryout was also bigger than expected with beans right where the traders thought. The USDA barely changed 2021-21 world ending stocks for corn, beans, and wheat from their April estimates. That left today’s USDA world corn number considerably larger than traders expected. Beans and wheat were close to what was ... June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Corn supplies tightened, beans did not The USDA gave the most positive numbers to the corn market in the WASDE report released Thursday. The old crop corn left in the bin is expected to be 75 million bushels less due to exports and another 75 million bushels smaller due to ethanol. The 150 million bushel cut in the old crop stocks estimate cut the beginning stocks for the new year. The USDA did not change corn acreage or yield estimates for the crop growing in the field. There were no changes in the new crop corn demand estimates. Corn ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year are expected to total 1.357 billion bushels. South American corn production was reduced 3.5 million tons to 98.5 million tons, one million tons more than the average trade estimate. Brazilian soybean production is increased 1 million tons from last month. The trade did not expect that number to change. No changes were made to Argentine production estimates. World corn carryout fell by 2.9 million tons, nearly ... September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA numbers not as big as feared Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough. The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month. The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels ... November 2021 Supply & Demand and Crop Production U.S. carryover stocks not as large as traders feared Crop markets were all pressured during the past week as traders got ready for Tuesday’s USDA numbers. But the USDA did not surprise anybody with their production estimates or stocks numbers. As you can see from the table below, most of the November numbers were about as expected. The biggest surprise came in soybeans where price action had convinced everybody that surpluses were building. The USDA economists instead cut soybean production by 23 million bushels from October and pegged U.S. bean carryout 22 million bushels less than the average trade estimate. Remember, these are just numbers on a paper. As the old saying goes, “it takes money to buy whiskey”. The prices of today’s crop markets will not buy very many bushels from farmers anywhere. The South American crop is months away from harvest and U.S. farmers have locked their bins. The USDA forecast the size of demand in feed grains, wheat, and oilseeds are all expected to set new records in the year ahead. Our Buy Signal on soybeans this morning turned ... July 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production July USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: The biggest USDA surprise is smaller wheat carry out. Notice the corn and bean yield estimates released today are unchanged from June. US wheat production came in at 1.746 billion bushels, down 152 million bushels from last month. U.S. winter wheat production was increased by 55 million bushels, while the initial spring wheat estimate was 114 million bushels lower than the average trade estimate. The 2020-21 carryout in corn was reduced 25 million bushels from the last report, while beans were left unchanged. 2021-22 carryout was increased for corn by 75 million bushels. Soybeans were left unchanged. Wheat carryover was reduced by 105 million bushels. Bullish traders will be disappointed that the USDA did not give us a substantially tightened supply. But as you can see from the ending stocks graphs below, U.S. supplies are still relatively tight, with little room for new business. Our Buy Signals in corn and winter wheat have proven to be timely. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters The USDA estimates the spring wheat yield at 30.7 bushels per acre, ... April 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production April 2021 USDA Wasde and Crop Production: U.S. corn stocks smaller than expected The USDA released their April WASDE report today, pegging U.S. corn stocks at 1.325 billion bushels, down from 1.502 billion last month. The average trade estimate had corn stocks 44 million bushels larger. U.S. bean and wheat stocks came in almost exactly where the trade expected. World corn and wheat stocks were each down nearly 4 million tons from their March estimates. This drawdown of world feed supplies surprised traders, who expected 1 million more tons of corn and six million tons of wheat. Get ready for Sell Signals in corn and wheat next week. World bean stocks surprised traders the other way. Ending world bean stocks are estimated to be 86.87 million tons, over 3 million tons from last month and the average trade estimate. Today’s report did not tighten world bean supplies, which will be disappointing to the bulls. Meanwhile, world corn and wheat farmers have fewer bushels expected to be left over at the end of this season. Notice all the South American crop production estimates, especially beans are bigger than ... Comments are closed.