8 November November 2021 Supply & Demand and Crop Production November 8, 2021 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 U.S. carryover stocks not as large as traders feared Crop markets were all pressured during the past week as traders got ready for Tuesday’s USDA numbers. But the USDA did not surprise anybody with their production estimates or stocks numbers. As you can see from the table below, most of the November numbers were about as expected. The biggest surprise came in soybeans where price action had convinced everybody that surpluses were building. The USDA economists instead cut soybean production by 23 million bushels from October and pegged U.S. bean carryout 22 million bushels less than the average trade estimate. Remember, these are just numbers on a paper. As the old saying goes, “it takes money to buy whiskey”. The prices of today’s crop markets will not buy very many bushels from farmers anywhere. The South American crop is months away from harvest and U.S. farmers have locked their bins. The USDA forecast the size of demand in feed grains, wheat, and oilseeds are all expected to set new records in the year ahead. Our Buy Signal on soybeans this morning turned out to be perfect. The Super Bowl continues. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters USDA Summary Corn This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for greater production, increased corn used for ethanol, and marginally lower ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.062 billion bushels, up 43 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to a record 177.0 bushels per acre. Corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels, based on September data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of October. With use rising slightly more than supply, corn ending stocks are lowered 7 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. Soybeans The U.S. soybean outlook for 2021/22 is for lower production and exports, and higher ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.42 billion bushels, down 23 million on lower yields. Lower yields in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas account for most of the change in production. Exports are reduced this month reflecting reduced global imports and lower-than-expected shipments through October. With use falling more than supply, soybean ending stocks are raised 20 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $12.10 per bushel, down 25 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $325.00 per short ton and 65.0 cents per pound, respectively. Wheat The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, reduced exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower anticipated imports, down 10 million bushels to 115 million on a continued weak import pace. Higher anticipated seed use for the 2022/23 crop more than offsets lower expected food use driven by a slower-than-expected pace of flour milling as reported in the quarterly NASS Flour Milling Products report. As a result, total domestic use is projected 2 million bushels higher at 1,163 million. Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 860 million, on lower anticipated exports of Hard Red Spring and White wheat based on high domestic prices and muted export sales. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised slightly to 583 million bushels, up 3 million from last month’s forecast but still the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2007/08. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations on cash and futures prices for the remainder of the marketing year. Source: USDA USDA Reports Charts and Graphs Click here to see the full USDA slideshow of charts and graphs. Click here for the USDA November 2021 Crop Production Report. Click here for the USDA November 2021 WASDE Report. Related Posts June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Corn supplies tightened, beans did not The USDA gave the most positive numbers to the corn market in the WASDE report released Thursday. The old crop corn left in the bin is expected to be 75 million bushels less due to exports and another 75 million bushels smaller due to ethanol. The 150 million bushel cut in the old crop stocks estimate cut the beginning stocks for the new year. The USDA did not change corn acreage or yield estimates for the crop growing in the field. There were no changes in the new crop corn demand estimates. Corn ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year are expected to total 1.357 billion bushels. South American corn production was reduced 3.5 million tons to 98.5 million tons, one million tons more than the average trade estimate. Brazilian soybean production is increased 1 million tons from last month. The trade did not expect that number to change. No changes were made to Argentine production estimates. World corn carryout fell by 2.9 million tons, nearly ... December 2021 Supply & Demand and Crop Production Very small changes in December USDA estimates The USDA did not change any U.S. or South American production numbers in their December update. Small changes to usage increased wheat stocks by 16 million bushels and were slightly larger than the average trade estimate. Corn and bean ending stocks were unchanged from the November estimates, with corn being slightly larger than trade expected and beans slightly smaller. In the world, ending stocks were increased a little over a million tons for corn and decreased by 1.7 million tons for soybeans. World wheat stocks were raised by 2.38 million tons. Weakness in wheat prices is worrisome and have slid prices below the November wheat for March Chicago wheat and are threatening to do that for March Kansas City wheat. The bullish wheat fundamentals appear to be fully adjusted into the price and a downward trend has begun. This is worrisome, since spec funds were holding sizable net long positions on the latest CFTC report. Corn and bean prices have retreated down to the green line. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters USDA summary comments: Corn This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn supply and ... August 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA delivers bullish reports As soon as the USDA numbers were released today, prices spiked higher. Nearly all crop production estimates and stocks tightened, and the USDA raised its price forecasts. Look for the Sell Signals in winter wheat to continue and new Sell Signals in Minneapolis wheat and corn tomorrow. We believe you should use these upcoming Sell Signals on corn (and possibly beans) to get the inventory sold that you can’t store. Wheat producers continue to maintain 30-60 days’ cash flow needs. Here is what the USDA said about the reports today: OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, and exports. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2020/21 crush and exports. Soybean production for 2021/22 is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million on lower yields. Harvested area is forecast at 86.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.0 bushels per acre is reduced 0.8 bushels from last month. Traders expected the average yield to be down 0.4 bushels per acre. Soybean ... May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Old crop wheat and new crop corn stocks were both bigger than expected. Following the USDA reports today, wheat prices immediately slid lower. The corn market traded lower for a little bit but quickly began to recover. The bean market immediately recovered some small losses following the report. As you can see from the following table, wheat was the only crop that had a bigger carryout estimate for 2020-21 compared to trade estimates and last month’s estimates. The USDA old crop corn carryout estimate was slightly smaller than trade expected, while beans were right on target. For the first estimate of the 2021-22 new crop year, corn ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels were larger than traders expected. New crop wheat carryout was also bigger than expected with beans right where the traders thought. The USDA barely changed 2021-21 world ending stocks for corn, beans, and wheat from their April estimates. That left today’s USDA world corn number considerably larger than traders expected. Beans and wheat were close to what was ... October 2021 Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA finds more corn and beans than expected Here are the numbers from today’s USDA reports. Click here for the USDA presentation with all the details and charts. Click here for the USDA October 2021 Crop Production Report. Click here for the USDA October 2021 Wasde Report. USDA Summary Corn This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn production is forecast at 15.019 billion bushels, up 23 million on a marginal increase in yield to 176.5 bushels per acre. Exports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting larger supplies and expectations of reduced competition from other major exporters. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2020/21. With supply rising and use falling, corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 92 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. Soybeans U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record 4.45 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 5 percent from 2020. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 51.5 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.9 bushel from the previous forecast ... September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA numbers not as big as feared Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough. The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month. The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels ... Comments are closed.