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USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments.


John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

November 2021 Supply & Demand and Crop Production

U.S. carryover stocks not as large as traders feared

Crop markets were all pressured during the past week as traders got ready for Tuesday’s USDA numbers. But the USDA did not surprise anybody with their production estimates or stocks numbers. As you can see from the table below, most of the November numbers were about as expected.

The biggest surprise came in soybeans where price action had convinced everybody that surpluses were building. The USDA economists instead cut soybean production by 23 million bushels from October and pegged U.S. bean carryout 22 million bushels less than the average trade estimate.

Remember, these are just numbers on a paper. As the old saying goes, “it takes money to buy whiskey”. The prices of today’s crop markets will not buy very many bushels from farmers anywhere. The South American crop is months away from harvest and U.S. farmers have locked their bins.

The USDA forecast the size of demand in feed grains, wheat, and oilseeds are all expected to set new records in the year ahead.

Our Buy Signal on soybeans this morning turned out to be perfect. The Super Bowl continues.

Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters

USDA Summary

Corn

This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for greater production, increased corn used for ethanol, and marginally lower ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.062 billion bushels, up 43 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to a record 177.0 bushels per acre.

Corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels, based on September data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of October. With use rising slightly more than supply, corn ending stocks are lowered 7 million bushels.

The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.

Soybeans

The U.S. soybean outlook for 2021/22 is for lower production and exports, and higher ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.42 billion bushels, down 23 million on lower yields. Lower yields in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas account for most of the change in production.

Exports are reduced this month reflecting reduced global imports and lower-than-expected shipments through October. With use falling more than supply, soybean ending stocks are raised 20 million bushels.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $12.10 per bushel, down 25 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $325.00 per short ton and 65.0 cents per pound, respectively.

Wheat

The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, reduced exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower anticipated imports, down 10 million bushels to 115 million on a continued weak import pace.

Higher anticipated seed use for the 2022/23 crop more than offsets lower expected food use driven by a slower-than-expected pace of flour milling as reported in the quarterly NASS Flour Milling Products report. As a result, total domestic use is projected 2 million bushels higher at 1,163 million.

Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 860 million, on lower anticipated exports of Hard Red Spring and White wheat based on high domestic prices and muted export sales. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised slightly to 583 million bushels, up 3 million from last month’s forecast but still the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2007/08.

The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations on cash and futures prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

Source: USDA

USDA Reports Charts and Graphs

Click here to see the full USDA slideshow of charts and graphs.

Click here for the USDA November 2021 Crop Production Report.

Click here for the USDA November 2021 WASDE Report.

 

 

 



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