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USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments.


John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

December 2021 Supply & Demand and Crop Production

Very small changes in December USDA estimates

The USDA did not change any U.S. or South American production numbers in their December update. Small changes to usage increased wheat stocks by 16 million bushels and were slightly larger than the average trade estimate.

Corn and bean ending stocks were unchanged from the November estimates, with corn being slightly larger than trade expected and beans slightly smaller.

In the world, ending stocks were increased a little over a million tons for corn and decreased by 1.7 million tons for soybeans. World wheat stocks were raised by 2.38 million tons.

Weakness in wheat prices is worrisome and have slid prices below the November wheat for March Chicago wheat and are threatening to do that for March Kansas City wheat. The bullish wheat fundamentals appear to be fully adjusted into the price and a downward trend has begun. This is worrisome, since spec funds were holding sizable net long positions on the latest CFTC report.

Corn and bean prices have retreated down to the green line.

Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters

 

USDA summary comments:

Corn

This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,501.7 million. The foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, increased trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month.

Oilseeds

Total U.S. oilseed production for 2021/22 is forecast at 130.3 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections for 2021/22 are unchanged from last month. Although soybean crush is unchanged, soybean oil production is raised on a higher extraction rate.

The U.S. season-average soybean and soybean oil price forecasts for 2021/22 are unchanged at $12.10 per bushel and 65.0 cents per pound, respectively. The soybean meal price forecast is increased $5.00 to $330.00 per short ton.

The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is projected at 627.6 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month mainly driven by lower soybean production.

Wheat

The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered, on decreased imports with a weaker-than-expected pace for Hard Red Spring (HRS).

Exports are lowered 20 million bushels to 840 million on slowing export sales and shipments with equivalent reductions for Hard Red Winter and HRS. Additionally, U.S. export prices are expected to remain elevated the rest of 2021/22, further diminishing U.S. competitiveness.

Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 15 million bushels to 598 million but are still 29 percent lower than last year. The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised $0.15 per bushel to $7.05 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices for the remainder of 2021/22. This would be the highest SAFP since 2012/13.

The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for higher supplies, greater consumption, increased trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected rising by 4.3 million tons to 1,067.5 million, primarily on the combination of increased beginning stocks for Australia and the EU and upward production revisions for Australia, Russia, and Canada.

Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 1.9 million tons to 789.4 million on higher feed and residual use more than offsetting lower food, seed, and industrial use.



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