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News and USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments, as well as featured article by Roach Ag Daily Grain Plan editors and writers.

John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production

June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Corn supplies tightened, beans did not

The USDA gave the most positive numbers to the corn market in the WASDE report released Thursday. The old crop corn left in the bin is expected to be 75 million bushels less due to exports and another 75 million bushels smaller due to ethanol. The 150 million bushel cut in the old crop stocks estimate cut the beginning stocks for the new year.

The USDA did not change corn acreage or yield estimates for the crop growing in the field. There were no changes in the new crop corn demand estimates. Corn ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year are expected to total 1.357 billion bushels.

South American corn production was reduced 3.5 million tons to 98.5 million tons, one million tons more than the average trade estimate. Brazilian soybean production is increased 1 million tons from last month. The trade did not expect that number to change. No changes were made to Argentine production estimates.

World corn carryout fell by 2.9 million tons, nearly all due to the lower Brazilian crop. The trade estimate was right in line with the USDA forecast.

U.S. soybean carryover of old crop in the bin was increased 15 million bushels due to reduced crush forecast for 2020-21. New crop U.S. bean production in the field was left unchanged. The carryover for 2021-22 was increased by the same 15 million bushels found in the bin.

World old crop stocks for soybeans were increased 1.45 million tons and the world soybeans for 2021-22 were increased by that same amount.

The U.S. wheat production estimate was increased to 1.898 billion bushels, up 26 million bushels compared to last month, which was almost exactly what the trade expected.

U.S. wheat supplies were raised as higher production more than offset reduced beginning stocks. Increased hard red winter and soft red winter production more than offset the lower white wheat production. The all wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month.

Old crop world wheat stocks were down a little more than a million tons. New crop world wheat stocks were increased by almost 2 million tons.

There were not enough changes in the USDA report to change our opinion about selling on this round of Sell Signals. We are happy to get the extra surge higher in corn today and hope bean prices and wheat prices will give us an opportunity at a Sell Signal next week.


Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX

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