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A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments, as well as featured article by Roach Ag Daily Grain Plan editors and writers.

John Roach
John Roach
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October 2021 Supply & Demand and Crop Production

USDA finds more corn and beans than expected

Here are the numbers from today’s USDA reports. Click here for the USDA presentation with all the details and charts.

Click here for the USDA October 2021 Crop Production Report.

Click here for the USDA October 2021 Wasde Report.

USDA Summary


This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn production is forecast at 15.019 billion bushels, up 23 million on a marginal increase in yield to 176.5 bushels per acre.

Exports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting larger supplies and expectations of reduced competition from other major exporters. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2020/21.

With supply rising and use falling, corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 92 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.


U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record 4.45 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 5 percent from 2020. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 51.5 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.9 bushel from the previous forecast and up 0.5 bushel from 2020.

Total planted area, at 87.2 million acres, is unchanged from the previous estimate, but up 5 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for beans, forecast at 86.4 million acres, is also unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from the previous year.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $12.35 per bushel, down 55 cents reflecting larger supplies. The soybean meal price is forecast at $325.00 per short ton, down $35.00. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound.


Supplies for the 2021/22 U.S. wheat are lowered 10 million tons on reduced imports, to 125 million. Annual feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 135 million despite the NASS Grain Stocks report indicating greater disappearance in the first quarter compared to last year.

Significantly reduced supplies of Hard Red Spring, Durum, and White wheat for 2021/22 are expected to curtail feed and residual use for the remainder of 2021/22 along with the continued large price premium of wheat over corn.

Exports are unchanged at 875 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 35 million bushels to 580 million, which are the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2007/08.

The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $6.70 on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.


Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX



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