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John Roach
John Roach
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Sept 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Annual Small Grains Summary Reports

More corn and beans, less wheat

Stocks

The USDA reported bigger corn and bean stocks than traders expected. As you can see from the numbers below, corn and wheat stocks were within the range of trade estimates, but the USDA found more beans than anybody expected.

USDA Summary

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports, and farm program administrative data, the 2020 corn for grain production is revised down 71.0 million bushels from the previous estimate.

Corn silage production is revised down 54 thousand tons. Planted area is revised to 90.7 million acres, and area harvested for grain is revised to 82.3 million acres. Area harvested for silage is revised to .71 million acres.

The 2020 grain yield, at 171.4 bushels per acre, is down 0.6 bushel  from the previous estimate. The 2020 silage yield, at 20.5 tons per acre, remains unchanged from the previous estimate.

A table with 2020 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on pages 17 and 18 of the Stocks report.

Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 68.1 million bushels, down 52 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 188 million bushels, are down 51 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2021 totaled 513 million bushels, down 40 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2020 soybean production is revised up 80.8 million bushels from the previous estimate.

Planted area is revised to 83.4 million acres, and harvested area is revised to 82.6 million acres. The 2020 yield, at 51.0 bushels per acre, is up 0.8 bushel from the previous estimate. A table with 2020 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on page 19 of this report.

Wheat

USDA Summary

All wheat production totaled 1.65 billion bushels in 2021, down 10 percent from the 2020 total of 1.83 billion bushels. Area harvested for grain totaled 37.2 million acres, up 1 percent from the previous year.

Spring wheat production was slightly larger than the average trade estimate. 

The United States yield was estimated at 44.3 bushels per acre, down 5.4 bushels from the previous year. The levels of production and changes from 2020 by type were: winter wheat, 1.28 billion bushels, up 9 percent; other spring wheat, 331 million bushels, down 44 percent; and Durum wheat, 37.3 million bushels, down 46 percent.

Click here to read the full Small Grains summary.

 

Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters



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