30 September September 2024 Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary September 30, 2024 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 The USDA pegged Sept. 1 US corn stocks at 1.760 billion bushels, down from trade expectations of 1.844 billion bushels, but 400 bushels larger than last September 1. Soybean stocks were 342 million bushels, down from trade expectations of 351 million bushels, but 78 million bushels larger than last year. The USDA pegged all-wheat production in 2024 at 1.971 billion bushels. This was 5 million bushels more than trade expected and up 9% from 2023’s 1.80 billion bushel production. All winter wheat was 1.349 billion bushels, 1 million less than trade expected. HRW was 770 million, SRW was 372 million, Durum was 80 million, and WW was 236 million. Traders did not react strongly to the numbers. Corn moved about a nickel higher after the reports, while soybeans and wheat improved a couple cents. We have Sell Signals for corn and soybeans. Continue making sales. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts September Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary Corn stocks under the smallest trade estimate. Bean stocks larger than expected. Wheat exactly as expected. Source: StoneX, Reuters The smaller than expected corn stocks drove corn prices up through the 20-day moving average, with Friday’s high (at this writing) nearly reaching the September price peak. Technical traders will view today’s performance as a positive event as well as fundamental traders that have smaller beginning stocks for the crop year. Corn prices have been in a relatively narrow trading range during the month of September and Friday’s report could give us the price thrust up to a Sell Signal. Bigger supplies of soybeans to start the new crop year prevented beans from clearing the green line 20-day moving average Friday. Beans have been in a broad trading range since early August and next week, prices will be back down challenging support and adding days to our Buy Signal. There is a gap left on the November bean chart at $13.50, which will likely be a downside target for technical traders. The just finished wheat harvest was estimated to be smaller than the ... September 2023 Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary More bean and wheat stocks than expected, less corn Corn Stocks Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2023 totaled 1.36 billion bushels, down 1 percent from September 1, 2022. Of the total stocks, 605 million bushels are stored on farms, up 19 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 756 million bushels, are down 13 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2023 indicated disappearance is 2.75 billion bushels, compared with 2.97 billion bushels during the same period last year. Bean Stocks Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2023 totaled 268 million bushels, down 2 percent from September 1, 2022. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 72.0 million bushels, up 14 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 196 million bushels, are down 7 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2023 totaled 528 million bushels, down 24 percent from the same period a year earlier. Comments Corn prices were down 7-8 cents following the reports, while beans and wheat both quickly dropped 20 cents. Corn was no longer in ... Sept 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Annual Small Grains Summary Reports More corn and beans, less wheat Stocks The USDA reported bigger corn and bean stocks than traders expected. As you can see from the numbers below, corn and wheat stocks were within the range of trade estimates, but the USDA found more beans than anybody expected. USDA Summary Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports, and farm program administrative data, the 2020 corn for grain production is revised down 71.0 million bushels from the previous estimate. Corn silage production is revised down 54 thousand tons. Planted area is revised to 90.7 million acres, and area harvested for grain is revised to 82.3 million acres. Area harvested for silage is revised to .71 million acres. The 2020 grain yield, at 171.4 bushels per acre, is down 0.6 bushel from the previous estimate. The 2020 silage yield, at 20.5 tons per acre, remains unchanged from the previous estimate. A table with 2020 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on pages 17 and 18 of the Stocks report. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 68.1 million bushels, down ... June 2024 Acreage & Quarterly Grain Stocks The USDA June quarterly stocks estimates were sharply higher than last year as expected but ended up even larger than the average trade estimates. However, they fell within the range of trade estimates. This was true for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The June acreage estimates were mixed compared to expectations. Corn acres came in at 91.475 million acres, which was 1.122 million acres larger than the average trade estimate and exceeded the highest trade estimate. This large total was obviously a bearish surprise to traders, as corn prices fell rapidly following the report. The USDA soybean acreage estimate swung in the opposite direction of corn. Bean acres were 653k smaller than the average trade estimate and fell below the smallest trade estimate. The smaller soybean acreage total tempered the impact of the larger than expected stocks number. Soybeans traded higher post-report. The wheat picture was also split, with larger than expected stocks, but smaller than expected acres. All wheat acres came in at 47.24 million acres, 417k smaller than the average trade estimate. Wheat prices slipped lower post-report. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX March 2024 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings US corn stocks and acreage smaller than expected March 1st US corn stocks came in at 8.347 billion bushels, compared to 7.396 billion last year. Traders expected stocks to be about 80 million bushels larger than the government counted. Corn prices were further helped with the USDA estimating 90.036 million corn acres for 2024, down from 91.776 million expected by traders. Beans and wheat stocks were both slightly higher than trade estimates and larger last year. The important fundamentals this week came today. The USDA numbers gave us a positive surprise in corn. The technical price action, however, is more impressive. After giving us Sell Signals in corn, beans, and some of the wheat contracts, prices fell sharply. The lows this week, however, were well defended today and it appears that we will close corn, beans, and wheat all above their respective 20-day averages, a positive performance in anybody’s book. This means we will start next week with spec funds holding major short positions going against them in an uptrending market. I think they will be buyers and hope that ... March 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Farmers tell USDA, “We are not planting as many corn and bean acres as traders expected.” The quarterly stocks were slightly smaller than expected for corn and slightly larger on beans and wheat. No surprises in the Stocks report. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Although corn acres are up less than 0.5%, four out of the top five states cut corn acres. Farmers decided to plant 5.4% more soybeans nationally and increased acres in each of the top five bean states. The surprise came in the wheat complex, where acreage was up 3.4% from the last estimate and a whopping 8.8% from last year. The bullishness in today’s reports is a little surprising, since acreage can certainly increase between now and the June report. By boosting the prices, traders will encourage the additional corn and bean acres the marketplace wants. How about the Buy Signals on soybeans, meal, and wheat this morning? Our strategy is to make an increment of sales on the next Sell Signal, which should be just around the corner. Source: All Slides from the USDA Executive Summary For full USDA reports, click on links below. Grain ... Comments are closed.