11 October October 2024 USDA Supply & Demand October 11, 2024 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 The USDA made only small changes to the numbers that they gave us last month. The US corn yield estimate was increased +0.2 to 183.8 bpa, increasing production slightly. The smaller beginning stocks number from the quarterly report was partially offset by a 25 million bushel export increase. In the end, US corn ending stocks fell by 58 million bushels to 1.999 billion bushels. For soybeans, the yield was lowered -.01 bpa to 53.1 bpa, which dropped production slightly to 4.582 billion bushels. Other small adjustments to beginning stocks and residual use left US soybean ending stocks unchanged at 550 million bushels again this month. World carryout totals for corn and soybeans were nearly exactly in line with trade expectations, while the world wheat carryout total was above the average trade estimate, but well within the range of trade guesses. Overall, the fundamentals haven’t changed much over the past month. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts May 2024 USDA Supply & Demand This month’s WASDE report was surprisingly bullish for US corn and wheat, with old and new crop carryout estimates of both coming in smaller than trade expectations. Prices of corn and all three wheat crops continued to move higher shortly after the report release. Lean into these continued rallies by making more sales of corn and all three classes of wheat. We were previously at 20% old crop and 10% new crop. Add another increment of 10% to old crop, and 5% to new crop sales. The USDA made some cuts to their South American production estimates, but overall, they cuts were smaller than trade expected. Thus, the USDA continues to lower their South American production estimates at a conservative pace. Corn The USDA cut 100 million bushels from their old crop (2023-24) US carryout estimate, which was 78 million below the average trade estimate. Then the first 2024-25 carryout estimate for US corn came in 182 million bushels less than trade expected. The new crop production estimates begin with assumptions of 90.0 million acres planted and a 181.0 bpa ... December 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Strong corn demand improved the balance sheet beyond expectations Strong demand totals for corn provided a bullish surprise from today’s WASDE report. Ethanol use increased 50 million bushels, and corn exports increased 150 million bushels. With no changes to the supply numbers this month, the 200 million bushel increase to corn demand fell straight to the bottom line, lowering the US corn carryout total from 1.938 to 1.738 billion bushels. The 200 million bushel reduction to US carryout was larger than trade expected and helped corn prices move higher following the report release. We had a 1-Box Sell Signal for corn trigger this morning. Following the favorable USDA supply demand adjustment and the higher price move, we are ready to increase our recommendation on this Sell Signal to 10% of 2024 production. That brings our total recommendation for 2024 corn to 80%. Roach Ag Corn sales recommendations: 2023 – 100% sold 2024 – 80% sold The USDA made no changes to their monthly supply demand table for US soybeans. US wheat carryout declined 20 million bushels this month following a 25 million bushel increase ... June 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Nothing jumped out as a headline in USDA reports The government didn’t change anybody’s mind with their numbers this month. The USDA only made small adjustments to their US and global supply demand numbers this month. The one area trade expected changes, in South American production, they continued to stick to their guns of higher production numbers. The USDA is not ready to follow the private South American estimates lower. We are heading into the important part of the US crop growing season. It is hard to get crops rated much better than 75% good to excellent. Normally crop ratings will only go down from here, but ratings are still expected to be good again this week. Expect choppy trade to continue. USDA US Summary The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks ... October USDA Supply & Demand The USDA pegged the U.S. wheat carryout at 883 million bushels, 42 million bushels below their September report and almost exactly what the trade expected. The smaller stocks came from a 0.4 average bushel per acre reduction, slight adjustment in usage and the carry-in stocks revision. The USDA pegged U.S. corn yield down 0.1 bushel per acre, slightly larger than trade estimates. Harvest acreage was reduced by 1 million acres and usage was cut by 100 million bushels, split between export and domestic. Corn ending stocks were reduced but were slightly higher than trade estimates and growers still have more than 2 billion bushels scheduled for a birthday. The USDA pegged the U.S. soybean yield at 51.9 bpa, unchanged from last month, but 0.3 bushels bigger than traders expected. The positive news came in the bean harvested acreage which was also cut by 1 million acres. In addition, exports were increased by 75 million bushels. The bean carryover estimate came in at 290 million bushels, well below trade estimates of 369 million bushels and last month’s estimate of 460 million bushels. If you look ... October USDA Supply & Demand USDA lowered US corn and bean yield estimates Quick summary US corn yield as expected US soybean yield smaller than expected US wheat carryout larger than expected due to lower demand The USDA’s October corn yield and production estimates were smaller than the September numbers but largely in line with trade estimates. New crop corn carryout was reduced from September but by only about half as much as trade expected. December corn was only a few cents lower following the report release. The surprise this month came from a lower than expected US soybean yield estimate. The USDA pegged the US bean yield at 49.8 bpa, compared to 50.5 bpa last month. Trade was expecting an even to slightly higher bean yield. The 49.8 bpa estimate matched the lowest trade guess. Soybean production was lowered to 4.31 billion bushels, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 3% from 2021. Trade was expecting an even to slightly higher bean production estimate. November soybeans rallied sharply following the reports and returned all the way to the green line 20-day moving average, ending our soybean Buy Signal. New crop ... September 2024 USDA Supply & Demand The changes this month from the USDA were mostly minor adjustments from their August estimates, particularly with soybeans and wheat, which both saw little to no changes from last month. In the end US carryout totals for corn and soybeans both declined this month, while US wheat carryout remained unchanged. For corn, the direction of change was not in line with pre-report trade expectations. While traders forecast the USDA to make cuts to their US corn acreage and yield estimates, the agency left corn harvested acreage unchanged and increased their corn yield estimate half a bushel higher. The result was a US corn production of 15.186 billion bushels, 39 million larger than last month. However, incoming stocks were reduced by 55 million bushels, which canceled out the larger production total and left US 2024-25 new crop corn carryout at 4.586 billion bushels, 16 million smaller than August. Global corn carryout was down from last month but larger than trade expectations. The USDA left US soybean harvested acreage and yield unchanged this month. Beginning stocks were down 5 million bushels and ... Comments are closed.