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USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments.


John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

October USDA Supply & Demand

USDA lowered US corn and bean yield estimates

Quick summary

  • US corn yield as expected
  • US soybean yield smaller than expected
  • US wheat carryout larger than expected due to lower demand

The USDA’s October corn yield and production estimates were smaller than the September numbers but largely in line with trade estimates. New crop corn carryout was reduced from September but by only about half as much as trade expected.

December corn was only a few cents lower following the report release.

The surprise this month came from a lower than expected US soybean yield estimate. The USDA pegged the US bean yield at 49.8 bpa, compared to 50.5 bpa last month. Trade was expecting an even to slightly higher bean yield. The 49.8 bpa estimate matched the lowest trade guess.

Soybean production was lowered to 4.31 billion bushels, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 3% from 2021. Trade was expecting an even to slightly higher bean production estimate.

November soybeans rallied sharply following the reports and returned all the way to the green line 20-day moving average, ending our soybean Buy Signal.

New crop wheat ending stocks were larger than trade expected. The USDA lowered the new crop US wheat carryout by 34 million bushels to 576 million bushels. Trade was expecting a 554 million bushel carryout.

Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters

 

From the USDA reports:

Corn

Corn production for is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, down less than 1% from the previous forecast and down 8% from 2021. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 171.9 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.6 bushel from the previous forecast and down 4.8 bushels from last year.

After a thorough review of all available data, acreage estimates are unchanged from last month. Total planted area, at 88.6 million acres, is unchanged from the previous estimate but down 5 percent from the previous year.

Area harvested for grain, forecast at 80.8 million acres, is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from the previous year.

Soybeans

Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.31 billion bushels, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 3% from 2021. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 49.8 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from the previous forecast and down 1.9 bushels from 2021.

After a thorough review of all available data acreage estimates are unchanged from last month. Total planted area, at 87.5 million acres, is unchanged from the previous estimate but up less than 1 percent from the previous year.

Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 86.6 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up less than 1 percent from 2021.

Wheat

The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, domestic use, exports, and stocks.

Supplies are reduced on lower 2022/23 production based on the NASS Small Grains Summary that indicated reductions in both harvested area and yield. This lowered production by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million, leaving production only minimally higher than last year.

Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports, raised 10 million bushels to 120 million, all for Hard Red Spring. Annual feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 50 million, based on first quarter disappearance, as indicated in the NASS Grain Stocks report. This is the lowest first quarter total disappearance since 1983/84.

Wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million on reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and continued uncompetitive U.S. export prices. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971/72.

Projected ending stocks are lowered 34 million bushels to 576 million, which would be the lowest since 2007/08. The season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $9.20 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.



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