11 October October 2023 USDA Supply & Demand October 11, 2023 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 The USDA cut their US corn and soybean yield estimates slightly more than expected. Corn came in at 173.0 bpa, and beans at 49.6 bpa this month. US corn and soybean carryout totals were both smaller than trade expected, while the US wheat carryout came in larger than expected. The global carryout totals for corn, beans, and wheat were all smaller than trade expected. Prices of corn, beans, and wheat were all trading higher 30 minutes following the reports, with beans seeing the largest gains. From the USDA COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million on a cut in yield to 173.0 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, a decline of 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2023/24 are lowered 110 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel. The 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for slightly higher production, larger trade, and greater stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher on increases for Argentina, Moldova, the EU, and Paraguay. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine and Moldova. Global corn stocks, at 312.4 million tons, are down 1.6 million. Soybeans: US soybean production is forecast at 4.1 billion bushels, down 42 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 82.8 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels from the September forecast. The largest production changes are for Kansas, Michigan, and Nebraska. Soybean exports are reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion with increased competition from South America. Soybean crush is projected at 2.3 billion bushels, up 10 million, driven by higher soybean meal exports and soybean oil domestic demand. With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 220 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is unchanged at $12.90 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 63 cents per pound, respectively. Global 2023/24 soybean exports are lowered 0.2 million tons to 168.2 million with lower exports for the United States partly offset by higher shipments for Brazil. Global soybean crush is increased 0.8 million tons to 328.5 million on higher crush for China and the United States. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 3.6 million tons to 115.6 million mainly on lower stocks for China, Brazil, and India. WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for higher supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised 85 million bushels, primarily on higher production as reported in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary, released September 29. Domestic use is raised 30 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use. Exports remain at 700 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks are raised by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks. Projected 2023/24 global ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million tons to 258.1 million, the lowest since 2015/16. Source: USDA, Reuters Source: USDA, StoneX Related Posts July 2023 USDA Supply & Demand USDA lowered US corn yield estimate but left beans unchanged The USDA lowered their US corn yield estimate from 181.5 to 177.5 bushels per acre this month, while they left their US bean yield estimate unchanged at 52.0 bpa. Trade was expecting lower yield estimates for both (176.6 & 51.4 bpa, respectively). This put their 2023 production estimates above trade expectations. The USDA estimates for next year’s carryout (2023-24) were larger than trade expected for corn, beans, and wheat. Of note, their 2023-24 soybean carryout estimate was 300 million bushels, 50% above the 199 million bushel average trade estimate. Soybean prices dropped 40 cents lower on the larger than expected bean carryout. In South America, the USDA offset changes in corn production by lowering their Argentine estimate 1 million tons at the same time they increased their Brazilian corn production estimate 1 million tons. They left their South American soybean production estimates unchanged from last month. Total wheat 2023-24 wheat production was larger than trade expected. The USDA increased their total wheat production estimate by 74 million bushels to 1.739 ... June 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Ho Hum USDA numbers keep weather as the main market focus. Sunday night’s opening will be a reflection of next week’s weather forecast. All of the fundamentals given to us by the USDA today will fade by comparison. So far, prices haven’t changed much since the reports were released. Corn The 2023-24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022-23 that is partly offset by lower imports. Exports were lowered 50 million bushels. With no supply or use changes for 2023-24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. The USDA cut their Argentine corn production estimate 2 million tons and raised their Brazilian estimate 2 million tons, canceling out the change in South America this month. Soybeans This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023-24 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports ... October USDA Supply & Demand The USDA pegged the U.S. wheat carryout at 883 million bushels, 42 million bushels below their September report and almost exactly what the trade expected. The smaller stocks came from a 0.4 average bushel per acre reduction, slight adjustment in usage and the carry-in stocks revision. The USDA pegged U.S. corn yield down 0.1 bushel per acre, slightly larger than trade estimates. Harvest acreage was reduced by 1 million acres and usage was cut by 100 million bushels, split between export and domestic. Corn ending stocks were reduced but were slightly higher than trade estimates and growers still have more than 2 billion bushels scheduled for a birthday. The USDA pegged the U.S. soybean yield at 51.9 bpa, unchanged from last month, but 0.3 bushels bigger than traders expected. The positive news came in the bean harvested acreage which was also cut by 1 million acres. In addition, exports were increased by 75 million bushels. The bean carryover estimate came in at 290 million bushels, well below trade estimates of 369 million bushels and last month’s estimate of 460 million bushels. If you look ... November 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Traders react bearish to USDA numbers Corn The USDA raised their US corn yield estimate by nearly 2 bushels, increasing their estimate from 173.0 to 174.9 bpa from October to November. The USDA raised the 2023 US corn production to a record 15.234 billion bushels, up from 15.064 billion last month, and the average trade estimate of 15.079 billion. Corn ending stocks for next fall were estimated at 2.156 billion bushels, up from 2.111 billion last month, and the average trade guess of 2.131 billion bushels. Corn is in a 4-Box Buy Signal. Livestock producers should be purchasing feed. Soybeans The USDA bean yield was also increased, moving to 49.9 bpa from 49.6 bpa last month. The USDA soybean production estimate was pegged at 4.129 billion bushels, up from 4.104 billion last month. Soybean carryover increased to 245 million bushels, compared to 220 million bushels last month, and the average trade estimate of 222 million bushels. Wheat US wheat carryout for next July increased to 684 million bushels, compared to 670 million last month and the average trade estimate of 669 million bushels. Thoughts These numbers were ... September 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Corn production larger, beans and wheat as traders expected The USDA found more corn and bean acres in their September report. Corn plantings were increased by 774,000 acres and bean plantings by 95,000 acres. The average corn yield was pulled down 1.3 bpa to 173.8 bpa and the soybean yield was 0.8 bpa lower at 50.1 bpa. Both yield estimates were in line with trade expectations. The net result was an increase in corn production of 23 million bushels to 15.134 billion bushels. If they are correct, it would be a record corn crop by 60 million bushels. Bean production was estimated at 4.146 billion bushels, a decrease of 59 bushels from the August estimate. This would be a large bean production but well below record level. US corn usage estimates were unchanged this month. All US supply demand numbers for wheat were left unchanged this month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from ... October USDA Supply & Demand USDA lowered US corn and bean yield estimates Quick summary US corn yield as expected US soybean yield smaller than expected US wheat carryout larger than expected due to lower demand The USDA’s October corn yield and production estimates were smaller than the September numbers but largely in line with trade estimates. New crop corn carryout was reduced from September but by only about half as much as trade expected. December corn was only a few cents lower following the report release. The surprise this month came from a lower than expected US soybean yield estimate. The USDA pegged the US bean yield at 49.8 bpa, compared to 50.5 bpa last month. Trade was expecting an even to slightly higher bean yield. The 49.8 bpa estimate matched the lowest trade guess. Soybean production was lowered to 4.31 billion bushels, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 3% from 2021. Trade was expecting an even to slightly higher bean production estimate. November soybeans rallied sharply following the reports and returned all the way to the green line 20-day moving average, ending our soybean Buy Signal. New crop ... Comments are closed.