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News and USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments, as well as featured article by Roach Ag Daily Grain Plan editors and writers.

John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

June 2023 USDA Supply & Demand

Ho Hum USDA numbers keep weather as the main market focus.

 Sunday night’s opening will be a reflection of next week’s weather forecast. All of the fundamentals given to us by the USDA today will fade by comparison. So far, prices haven’t changed much since the reports were released.


The 2023-24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged.

Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022-23 that is partly offset by lower imports. Exports were lowered 50 million bushels. With no supply or use changes for 2023-24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.

The USDA cut their Argentine corn production estimate 2 million tons and raised their Brazilian estimate 2 million tons, canceling out the change in South America this month.


This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023-24 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports for 2022-23, down 15 million bushels to 2.0 billion based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and competition from South America.

With increased supplies for 2023-24 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, up 15 million. The soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

The USDA also cut their Argentine bean production estimate 2 million tons, while increasing their Brazilian estimate by 1 million tons.


Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.14 billion bushels, up 1% from the May 1 forecast and up 3% from 2022. As of June 1, the United States yield is forecast at 44.9 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushel from last month but down 2.1 bushels from last year’s average yield of 47.0 bushels per acre. Hard Red Winter production, at 525 million bushels, is up 2% last month.

The outlook for 2023-24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised as all wheat production is projected at 1,665 million bushels, up 6 million from last month on higher

Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting reductions in Soft Red Winter and White Winter. The all wheat yield is 44.9 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month but remaining below last year. Total use is unchanged with all of the production increase added to ending stocks, now projected at 562 million bushels.

The 2023-24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.30 per bushel to $7.70 on larger U.S. and foreign wheat supplies.

Source: USDA, Bloomberg



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