11 September September 2023 USDA Supply & Demand September 11, 2023 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 Corn production larger, beans and wheat as traders expected The USDA found more corn and bean acres in their September report. Corn plantings were increased by 774,000 acres and bean plantings by 95,000 acres. The average corn yield was pulled down 1.3 bpa to 173.8 bpa and the soybean yield was 0.8 bpa lower at 50.1 bpa. Both yield estimates were in line with trade expectations. The net result was an increase in corn production of 23 million bushels to 15.134 billion bushels. If they are correct, it would be a record corn crop by 60 million bushels. Bean production was estimated at 4.146 billion bushels, a decrease of 59 bushels from the August estimate. This would be a large bean production but well below record level. US corn usage estimates were unchanged this month. All US supply demand numbers for wheat were left unchanged this month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. The USDA did not reduce the 2023-24 world soybean ending stocks enough to make us feel comfortable. The graph below shows today’s USDA world soybean stocks estimate compared to history. Unless something changes, we need to make sure we wrap up soybean sales during Brazil’s growing season. Wheat was the only market today able to overcome active selling activity. After setting a new low for this move, prices bounced higher on the day in all three types of wheat. Traders may have been reacting to the USDA slightly tightening world wheat stocks, but we think it is more. As you know, we only get so many days of Buy Signals before markets turn around. Today was Day 26 of the Chicago wheat Buy Signal. Prices have dropped sharply during this period. We think that is about enough. Source: USDA Source: USDA, Bloomberg Related Posts July 2023 USDA Supply & Demand USDA lowered US corn yield estimate but left beans unchanged The USDA lowered their US corn yield estimate from 181.5 to 177.5 bushels per acre this month, while they left their US bean yield estimate unchanged at 52.0 bpa. Trade was expecting lower yield estimates for both (176.6 & 51.4 bpa, respectively). This put their 2023 production estimates above trade expectations. The USDA estimates for next year’s carryout (2023-24) were larger than trade expected for corn, beans, and wheat. Of note, their 2023-24 soybean carryout estimate was 300 million bushels, 50% above the 199 million bushel average trade estimate. Soybean prices dropped 40 cents lower on the larger than expected bean carryout. In South America, the USDA offset changes in corn production by lowering their Argentine estimate 1 million tons at the same time they increased their Brazilian corn production estimate 1 million tons. They left their South American soybean production estimates unchanged from last month. Total wheat 2023-24 wheat production was larger than trade expected. The USDA increased their total wheat production estimate by 74 million bushels to 1.739 ... September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA numbers not as big as feared Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough. The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month. The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels ... October 2023 USDA Supply & Demand The USDA cut their US corn and soybean yield estimates slightly more than expected. Corn came in at 173.0 bpa, and beans at 49.6 bpa this month. US corn and soybean carryout totals were both smaller than trade expected, while the US wheat carryout came in larger than expected. The global carryout totals for corn, beans, and wheat were all smaller than trade expected. Prices of corn, beans, and wheat were all trading higher 30 minutes following the reports, with beans seeing the largest gains. From the USDA COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million on a cut in yield to 173.0 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, a decline of 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply. With supply falling ... September USDA Supply & Demand USDA soybean yield estimate smaller than expected at 50.5 bpa Soybeans The surprise in the USDA numbers came in a lower than expected US soybean yield estimate. The USDA cut their US soybean yield estimate from 51.9 bpa in August to 50.5 bpa in this month’s report. This was smaller than the low end of the trade estimate range. The USDA also cut the soybean harvested acreage estimate by 1% from last month, dropping it down to 86.6 million acres. This was 611,000 acres smaller than the average trade estimate. The reduced bean yield and acreage numbers put the estimate for total soybean production at 4.378 billion bushels, which is 153 million bushels below the August report and 118 million bushels below the average trade estimate. Crush (-20 million bushels) and export (-70 million) estimates were both reduced. Overall, this dropped the 2022-23 US soybean carryout to 200 million bushels, down from 245 million in August. The average trade estimate was for a slight increase in soybean carryout. The tighter supply numbers sent bean prices higher immediately after the report release. ... June 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Ho Hum USDA numbers keep weather as the main market focus. Sunday night’s opening will be a reflection of next week’s weather forecast. All of the fundamentals given to us by the USDA today will fade by comparison. So far, prices haven’t changed much since the reports were released. Corn The 2023-24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022-23 that is partly offset by lower imports. Exports were lowered 50 million bushels. With no supply or use changes for 2023-24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. The USDA cut their Argentine corn production estimate 2 million tons and raised their Brazilian estimate 2 million tons, canceling out the change in South America this month. Soybeans This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2023-24 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports ... November 2023 USDA Supply & Demand Traders react bearish to USDA numbers Corn The USDA raised their US corn yield estimate by nearly 2 bushels, increasing their estimate from 173.0 to 174.9 bpa from October to November. The USDA raised the 2023 US corn production to a record 15.234 billion bushels, up from 15.064 billion last month, and the average trade estimate of 15.079 billion. Corn ending stocks for next fall were estimated at 2.156 billion bushels, up from 2.111 billion last month, and the average trade guess of 2.131 billion bushels. Corn is in a 4-Box Buy Signal. Livestock producers should be purchasing feed. Soybeans The USDA bean yield was also increased, moving to 49.9 bpa from 49.6 bpa last month. The USDA soybean production estimate was pegged at 4.129 billion bushels, up from 4.104 billion last month. Soybean carryover increased to 245 million bushels, compared to 220 million bushels last month, and the average trade estimate of 222 million bushels. Wheat US wheat carryout for next July increased to 684 million bushels, compared to 670 million last month and the average trade estimate of 669 million bushels. Thoughts These numbers were ... Comments are closed.