9 December December USDA Supply/Demand December 9, 2022 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 The USDA made few changes to their supply demand numbers in the December WASDE report. They made no changes to their US wheat and soybean supply demand numbers. They cut US corn exports by 75 million bushels, acknowledging the slow pace of corn sales and shipments. This increased their US corn carryout total by 75 million bushels. There were few changes to the world supply demand numbers. Beans and wheat were largely unchanged from last month. The world corn carryout total was reduced by 2.36 million tons (-0.8%), which was the largest change made to the world numbers. The USDA also left their South American production estimates unchanged this month. Friday’s USDA report had very limited impact on prices. Even though the government cut exports, the corn market traded higher following the release of the numbers. Soybeans also were able to move higher after the numbers came out, but wheat prices slid on the lack of improved numbers. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Related Posts January USDA Supply/Demand, Grain Stocks, & Winter Wheat Seedings The USDA released six separate reports today at 11 am central time. You can see our table summarizing the key data below. We will digest this information today and over the long weekend to provide a fuller summary in our next letter on Tuesday next week (Monday is the MLK holiday). Here are some quick bullet point highlights: 2023 US Production increased. US carryout increased. In the annual Crop Production report, the USDA updated their final US 2023 crop estimates for corn and soybeans. While the USDA lowered their acreage totals for US corn and beans, they increased their yield estimates for both, which led to larger production totals and larger carryout estimates. US 2023 Corn yield increased from 174.9 to 177.3 bpa. US 2023 Corn production increased from 15.234 to 15.342 billion bushels. US 2023 Soybean yield increased from 49.9 to 50.6 bpa. US 2023 Soybean production increased from 4.129 to 4.165 billion bushels. US carryout increased for corn (+31 million bu) and beans (+35 million bu) but was lowered slightly for wheat (-11 million bu). From the US Supply & Demand tables: Corn Feed up 25 million ... December USDA Supply & Demand December 2020 USDA Supply & Demand: USDA cuts bean stocks slightly. Corn left unchanged. The USDA delivered a typical December WASDE report. They acknowledged the faster than expected pace of domestic crush and raised crush by 15 million bushels. Surprisingly, exports were left unchanged. U.S. corn estimates were left unchanged. U.S. wheat imports were reduced by 5 million bushels and exports were increased 10 million bushels, leaving carryout 15 million bushels smaller. The USDA reduced Argentine corn and beans production by 1 million metric tons each. Brazil production was left unchanged. After further analysis, this report was a non-event. Without new bullish fundamental news to support a rally, we could see markets rollover as funds exit winning positions before the end of the year. Get ready for Buy Signals in corn and beans. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX November USDA Supply/Demand USDA raises corn and bean yields slightly; little change in stocks. Although it was not immediately apparent in the USDA supply demand report, Argentina is moving into a key role in world corn prices. The USDA forecast total world coarse grain exports at 225.12 million metric tons in today’s report. 59.22 million tons were forecast to be shipped from the United States, with 46.5 million tons from Argentina, and 47.03 million tons from Brazil. That Argentine number was down half a million tons from last month. Drought in Argentina is threatening their corn crop and moving that country into a more important role in corn prices. Our weather consultant didn’t see immediate relief for the Argentine drought in his report this morning. The majority of the Brazilian corn crop is planted as a second crop following soybeans and won’t have much impact on our market for several months. Meanwhile, corn prices have been beat down due to low water in the Mississippi and discounted feed grain prices in the Black Sea region. Our system is giving us the sixth day of a Buy ... January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... December 2023 USDA Supply & Demand US corn and wheat stocks slightly smaller. Bean numbers unchanged. The market appeared disappointed. The USDA did not make a reduction to the Brazilian crop as traders expected, and the global soybean ending stocks continue to be very large and painting a Big Red Bar on our charts. Bean prices have been stuck in a downtrend which keeps commodity funds active on the sell side of their order pad. On the other side of the order pad, we continue to hear from Brazilian producers concerned about their soybean crop, while the biggest buyer in the world, China, has been active. We have Sell Signals in wheat. This is the time to decide if you need to complete your sales. There was little change in the wheat numbers, but the market reaction remains negative. The world continues to make large wheat purchases out of Russia. This week we had the commodity funds helping the wheat market and prices remain well above the green line 20-day moving average. Commodity funds remain heavily short the wheat markets, we should see more buying from them ... September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA numbers not as big as feared Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough. The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month. The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels ... Comments are closed.