For more information call 800-622-7628 !

News and USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments, as well as featured article by Roach Ag Daily Grain Plan editors and writers.

John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

January USDA Supply/Demand, Grain Stocks, & Winter Wheat Seedings

The USDA released six separate reports today at 11 am central time. You can see our table summarizing the key data below. We will digest this information today and over the long weekend to provide a fuller summary in our next letter on Tuesday next week (Monday is the MLK holiday).

Here are some quick bullet point highlights:

2023 US Production increased. US carryout increased.

In the annual Crop Production report, the USDA updated their final US 2023 crop estimates for corn and soybeans. While the USDA lowered their acreage totals for US corn and beans, they increased their yield estimates for both, which led to larger production totals and larger carryout estimates.

US 2023 Corn yield increased from 174.9 to 177.3 bpa.

US 2023 Corn production increased from 15.234 to 15.342 billion bushels.

US 2023 Soybean yield increased from 49.9 to 50.6 bpa.

US 2023 Soybean production increased from 4.129 to 4.165 billion bushels.

US carryout increased for corn (+31 million bu) and beans (+35 million bu) but was lowered slightly for wheat (-11 million bu).

From the US Supply & Demand tables:


Feed up 25 million bushels

Ethanol up 50 million bushels

Exports unchanged

Soybeans and Wheat

Both saw minimal changes outside of the production increase.

Exports unchanged. Soybean crushing unchanged.

World carryout increased

World carryout increased for corn (+10 million tons), beans (+390k tons), and wheat (1.83 million tons).

Quarterly Grain Stocks

The December 1st US grain stocks for corn, beans, and wheat were all larger than trade expectations. Corn was up 13% from last year, beans were down 1% from last year, and wheat was up 8% from last year.

Winter Wheat Seedings

US 2024 winter wheat seeded area were down 6% compared to 2023. The totals for all classes were below the average trade estimates. However, world wheat output and supply both increased according to the WASDE report.

South American production

The USDA cut their Brazilian production estimates less than trade expected. The USDA is taking a cautious approach to assessing the Brazilian crops. But they did increase their Argentine soybean production estimate mare than expected, raising it 2 million tons to 50.0 million tons. They left their Argentine corn production estimate unchanged.

Prices lower after the reports

Overall, US and world carryout increased in today’s reports. There were no bullish surprises. Forty-five minutes after the reports were dropped, all our crop markets are trading sharply lower than they were prior to the reports. Buy Signals continue. Chicago and KC wheat are likely to join everything else in Buy Signals when trading resumes next week.


Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters

Comments are closed.
  • Contact Us Today!

    Our team looks forward to hearing from you.


We look forward to hearing from you.

About Us

Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Roach Ag Marketing moved their main office to Boca Raton, Florida after 21 cold winters in Iowa.

Contact Us

Roach Ag Marketing
568 East Yamato Rd. Ste. 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628

Brokerage and consulting services offered by Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd, an NFA-registered introducing broker. The trading of derivatives such as futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.