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News and USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments, as well as featured article by Roach Ag Daily Grain Plan editors and writers.

John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

January USDA Supply & Demand, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings

USDA Summary

The USDA final crop production estimates for 2022 were lowered for corn and soybeans, 200 million bushels and 70 million bushels, respectively.

The smaller corn and bean productions totals were a surprise to the trade, who expected US production numbers to be increased slightly.

Corn production was reduced due to a surprising cut of 1.64 million harvested acres. The smaller acres offset a bigger national average yield, which was increased from 172.3 to 173.3 bpa.

Bean production was cut due to a combined 0.4 bpa reduction in yield and 295,000 acreage reduction.

The USDA reported winter wheat plantings totaling 36.95 million acres, a larger than expected 3.7 million acre increase. Traders expected US winter wheat acreage to be increased by just 1.2 million acres.

US wheat acres rebounded due to the high crop insurance guarantees, following recent years of lower wheat acreage plantings.

US carryout estimates for corn, beans, and wheat were all lower than the December estimates. This was a surprise, with most traders expected carryout to increase slightly across the board.

Corn and bean prices were sharply higher on the surprising reductions. Wheat prices struggled initially after the report due to the higher US acreage total and impressive wheat crops expected out of Australia and India.

So far, our Buy Signals on corn and wheat this week have worked quite well.

US quarterly stocks were smaller than last year and smaller than the average trade estimates. In fact, each were near the low of the range of trade estimates. 

In Brazil, soybean production was increased 1 million tons to 153.0 million metric tons, while Brazilian corn production was reduced 1 million tons to 125.0 million tons.

Argentine bean production was lowered more than expected, dropping from 49.5 to 45.5 million tons. Argentine corn production was cut from 55.0 to 52.0 million tons, which was in line with trade expectations.

World carryout numbers were reduced about 2 million tons for corn but increased nearly 1 million tons each for soybeans and wheat.

Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters

Source: StoneX, USDA

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