10 December December USDA Supply & Demand December 10, 2020 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand Supply/Demand USDA WASDE 0 December 2020 USDA Supply & Demand: USDA cuts bean stocks slightly. Corn left unchanged. The USDA delivered a typical December WASDE report. They acknowledged the faster than expected pace of domestic crush and raised crush by 15 million bushels. Surprisingly, exports were left unchanged. U.S. corn estimates were left unchanged. U.S. wheat imports were reduced by 5 million bushels and exports were increased 10 million bushels, leaving carryout 15 million bushels smaller. The USDA reduced Argentine corn and beans production by 1 million metric tons each. Brazil production was left unchanged. After further analysis, this report was a non-event. Without new bullish fundamental news to support a rally, we could see markets rollover as funds exit winning positions before the end of the year. Get ready for Buy Signals in corn and beans. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Related Posts January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Old crop wheat and new crop corn stocks were both bigger than expected. Following the USDA reports today, wheat prices immediately slid lower. The corn market traded lower for a little bit but quickly began to recover. The bean market immediately recovered some small losses following the report. As you can see from the following table, wheat was the only crop that had a bigger carryout estimate for 2020-21 compared to trade estimates and last month’s estimates. The USDA old crop corn carryout estimate was slightly smaller than trade expected, while beans were right on target. For the first estimate of the 2021-22 new crop year, corn ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels were larger than traders expected. New crop wheat carryout was also bigger than expected with beans right where the traders thought. The USDA barely changed 2021-21 world ending stocks for corn, beans, and wheat from their April estimates. That left today’s USDA world corn number considerably larger than traders expected. Beans and wheat were close to what was ... July 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production July USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: The biggest USDA surprise is smaller wheat carry out. Notice the corn and bean yield estimates released today are unchanged from June. US wheat production came in at 1.746 billion bushels, down 152 million bushels from last month. U.S. winter wheat production was increased by 55 million bushels, while the initial spring wheat estimate was 114 million bushels lower than the average trade estimate. The 2020-21 carryout in corn was reduced 25 million bushels from the last report, while beans were left unchanged. 2021-22 carryout was increased for corn by 75 million bushels. Soybeans were left unchanged. Wheat carryover was reduced by 105 million bushels. Bullish traders will be disappointed that the USDA did not give us a substantially tightened supply. But as you can see from the ending stocks graphs below, U.S. supplies are still relatively tight, with little room for new business. Our Buy Signals in corn and winter wheat have proven to be timely. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters The USDA estimates the spring wheat yield at 30.7 bushels per acre, ... June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production June 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Corn supplies tightened, beans did not The USDA gave the most positive numbers to the corn market in the WASDE report released Thursday. The old crop corn left in the bin is expected to be 75 million bushels less due to exports and another 75 million bushels smaller due to ethanol. The 150 million bushel cut in the old crop stocks estimate cut the beginning stocks for the new year. The USDA did not change corn acreage or yield estimates for the crop growing in the field. There were no changes in the new crop corn demand estimates. Corn ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year are expected to total 1.357 billion bushels. South American corn production was reduced 3.5 million tons to 98.5 million tons, one million tons more than the average trade estimate. Brazilian soybean production is increased 1 million tons from last month. The trade did not expect that number to change. No changes were made to Argentine production estimates. World corn carryout fell by 2.9 million tons, nearly ... April 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production April 2021 USDA Wasde and Crop Production: U.S. corn stocks smaller than expected The USDA released their April WASDE report today, pegging U.S. corn stocks at 1.325 billion bushels, down from 1.502 billion last month. The average trade estimate had corn stocks 44 million bushels larger. U.S. bean and wheat stocks came in almost exactly where the trade expected. World corn and wheat stocks were each down nearly 4 million tons from their March estimates. This drawdown of world feed supplies surprised traders, who expected 1 million more tons of corn and six million tons of wheat. Get ready for Sell Signals in corn and wheat next week. World bean stocks surprised traders the other way. Ending world bean stocks are estimated to be 86.87 million tons, over 3 million tons from last month and the average trade estimate. Today’s report did not tighten world bean supplies, which will be disappointing to the bulls. Meanwhile, world corn and wheat farmers have fewer bushels expected to be left over at the end of this season. Notice all the South American crop production estimates, especially beans are bigger than ... October USDA Supply & Demand The USDA pegged the U.S. wheat carryout at 883 million bushels, 42 million bushels below their September report and almost exactly what the trade expected. The smaller stocks came from a 0.4 average bushel per acre reduction, slight adjustment in usage and the carry-in stocks revision. The USDA pegged U.S. corn yield down 0.1 bushel per acre, slightly larger than trade estimates. Harvest acreage was reduced by 1 million acres and usage was cut by 100 million bushels, split between export and domestic. Corn ending stocks were reduced but were slightly higher than trade estimates and growers still have more than 2 billion bushels scheduled for a birthday. The USDA pegged the U.S. soybean yield at 51.9 bpa, unchanged from last month, but 0.3 bushels bigger than traders expected. The positive news came in the bean harvested acreage which was also cut by 1 million acres. In addition, exports were increased by 75 million bushels. The bean carryover estimate came in at 290 million bushels, well below trade estimates of 369 million bushels and last month’s estimate of 460 million bushels. If you look ... Comments are closed.