10 December December USDA Supply & Demand December 10, 2020 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand Supply/Demand USDA WASDE 0 December 2020 USDA Supply & Demand: USDA cuts bean stocks slightly. Corn left unchanged. The USDA delivered a typical December WASDE report. They acknowledged the faster than expected pace of domestic crush and raised crush by 15 million bushels. Surprisingly, exports were left unchanged. U.S. corn estimates were left unchanged. U.S. wheat imports were reduced by 5 million bushels and exports were increased 10 million bushels, leaving carryout 15 million bushels smaller. The USDA reduced Argentine corn and beans production by 1 million metric tons each. Brazil production was left unchanged. After further analysis, this report was a non-event. Without new bullish fundamental news to support a rally, we could see markets rollover as funds exit winning positions before the end of the year. Get ready for Buy Signals in corn and beans. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Related Posts January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA numbers not as big as feared Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough. The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month. The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels ... May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Old crop wheat and new crop corn stocks were both bigger than expected. Following the USDA reports today, wheat prices immediately slid lower. The corn market traded lower for a little bit but quickly began to recover. The bean market immediately recovered some small losses following the report. As you can see from the following table, wheat was the only crop that had a bigger carryout estimate for 2020-21 compared to trade estimates and last month’s estimates. The USDA old crop corn carryout estimate was slightly smaller than trade expected, while beans were right on target. For the first estimate of the 2021-22 new crop year, corn ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels were larger than traders expected. New crop wheat carryout was also bigger than expected with beans right where the traders thought. The USDA barely changed 2021-21 world ending stocks for corn, beans, and wheat from their April estimates. That left today’s USDA world corn number considerably larger than traders expected. Beans and wheat were close to what was ... December 2021 Supply & Demand and Crop Production Very small changes in December USDA estimates The USDA did not change any U.S. or South American production numbers in their December update. Small changes to usage increased wheat stocks by 16 million bushels and were slightly larger than the average trade estimate. Corn and bean ending stocks were unchanged from the November estimates, with corn being slightly larger than trade expected and beans slightly smaller. In the world, ending stocks were increased a little over a million tons for corn and decreased by 1.7 million tons for soybeans. World wheat stocks were raised by 2.38 million tons. Weakness in wheat prices is worrisome and have slid prices below the November wheat for March Chicago wheat and are threatening to do that for March Kansas City wheat. The bullish wheat fundamentals appear to be fully adjusted into the price and a downward trend has begun. This is worrisome, since spec funds were holding sizable net long positions on the latest CFTC report. Corn and bean prices have retreated down to the green line. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters USDA summary comments: Corn This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn supply and ... May USDA Supply & Demand The highly anticipated May USDA supply demand estimates contained a couple of surprises. First both old and new crop U.S. wheat carryout was smaller than trade expected. Second, the first USDA 2022-23 yield estimate was pegged at 177.0 bushels per acre, which was 4.0 bpa below the adjusted trend yield estimate in the February USDA Ag Outlook Forum. See the U.S. supply demand tables below. The rest of the key U.S. numbers were not far from trade estimates. Both old and new corn carryout were larger than expected. Despite the lower than expected 2022-23 corn yield, carryout increased on a 2.5% cut to domestic use and exports. The 2022-23 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2021-22. The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks, and higher prices. The 2022-23 world carryout for corn and soybeans were larger than expected, while world wheat carryout was smaller than expected. In South America, the USDA left their April estimates for Brazilian corn and bean production unchanged while they lowered their ... July 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production July USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: The biggest USDA surprise is smaller wheat carry out. Notice the corn and bean yield estimates released today are unchanged from June. US wheat production came in at 1.746 billion bushels, down 152 million bushels from last month. U.S. winter wheat production was increased by 55 million bushels, while the initial spring wheat estimate was 114 million bushels lower than the average trade estimate. The 2020-21 carryout in corn was reduced 25 million bushels from the last report, while beans were left unchanged. 2021-22 carryout was increased for corn by 75 million bushels. Soybeans were left unchanged. Wheat carryover was reduced by 105 million bushels. Bullish traders will be disappointed that the USDA did not give us a substantially tightened supply. But as you can see from the ending stocks graphs below, U.S. supplies are still relatively tight, with little room for new business. Our Buy Signals in corn and winter wheat have proven to be timely. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters The USDA estimates the spring wheat yield at 30.7 bushels per acre, ... Comments are closed.