9 August August 2024 USDA Supply & Demand August 9, 2024 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 This morning, we listened to Arlan Suderman (StoneX economist) give his market update prior to the USDA reports. He pointed out that in prior comparable years when crops started out in good condition, like this year, the average yield ended at +7.6% above trend. Trade has considered these potential increased production totals and prices have adjusted accordingly. From the Reports: The USDA increased the 2024-25 soybean carryout by 95 million bushels beyond the pre-report trade guess. Corn and wheat went in the opposite direction, with the USDA lowering carryout for both more than trade expected. The big surprise in the Crop Production report was that US soybean harvested acreage increased by 1% compared to the July report, and the US yield came in at 53.2 bpa, above the 52.5 bpa average trade estimate. Total planted US corn acreage was -1% lower than July and the yield was increased from 181.0 to 183.1 bpa. US wheat production was down -1% from July. The average yield was 52.2 bpa, up 0.4 bpa from last month. Harvested acreage for US wheat was down -2%. World corn and wheat carryout were down from last month but nearly exactly in line with trade expectations. Global soybean carryout was up about 6 million metric tons, when trade expected an unchanged number. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Related Posts May 2024 USDA Supply & Demand This month’s WASDE report was surprisingly bullish for US corn and wheat, with old and new crop carryout estimates of both coming in smaller than trade expectations. Prices of corn and all three wheat crops continued to move higher shortly after the report release. Lean into these continued rallies by making more sales of corn and all three classes of wheat. We were previously at 20% old crop and 10% new crop. Add another increment of 10% to old crop, and 5% to new crop sales. The USDA made some cuts to their South American production estimates, but overall, they cuts were smaller than trade expected. Thus, the USDA continues to lower their South American production estimates at a conservative pace. Corn The USDA cut 100 million bushels from their old crop (2023-24) US carryout estimate, which was 78 million below the average trade estimate. Then the first 2024-25 carryout estimate for US corn came in 182 million bushels less than trade expected. The new crop production estimates begin with assumptions of 90.0 million acres planted and a 181.0 bpa ... August 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA delivers bullish reports As soon as the USDA numbers were released today, prices spiked higher. Nearly all crop production estimates and stocks tightened, and the USDA raised its price forecasts. Look for the Sell Signals in winter wheat to continue and new Sell Signals in Minneapolis wheat and corn tomorrow. We believe you should use these upcoming Sell Signals on corn (and possibly beans) to get the inventory sold that you can’t store. Wheat producers continue to maintain 30-60 days’ cash flow needs. Here is what the USDA said about the reports today: OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, and exports. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2020/21 crush and exports. Soybean production for 2021/22 is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million on lower yields. Harvested area is forecast at 86.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.0 bushels per acre is reduced 0.8 bushels from last month. Traders expected the average yield to be down 0.4 bushels per acre. Soybean ... December 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Strong corn demand improved the balance sheet beyond expectations Strong demand totals for corn provided a bullish surprise from today’s WASDE report. Ethanol use increased 50 million bushels, and corn exports increased 150 million bushels. With no changes to the supply numbers this month, the 200 million bushel increase to corn demand fell straight to the bottom line, lowering the US corn carryout total from 1.938 to 1.738 billion bushels. The 200 million bushel reduction to US carryout was larger than trade expected and helped corn prices move higher following the report release. We had a 1-Box Sell Signal for corn trigger this morning. Following the favorable USDA supply demand adjustment and the higher price move, we are ready to increase our recommendation on this Sell Signal to 10% of 2024 production. That brings our total recommendation for 2024 corn to 80%. Roach Ag Corn sales recommendations: 2023 – 100% sold 2024 – 80% sold The USDA made no changes to their monthly supply demand table for US soybeans. US wheat carryout declined 20 million bushels this month following a 25 million bushel increase ... June 2024 USDA Supply & Demand Nothing jumped out as a headline in USDA reports The government didn’t change anybody’s mind with their numbers this month. The USDA only made small adjustments to their US and global supply demand numbers this month. The one area trade expected changes, in South American production, they continued to stick to their guns of higher production numbers. The USDA is not ready to follow the private South American estimates lower. We are heading into the important part of the US crop growing season. It is hard to get crops rated much better than 75% good to excellent. Normally crop ratings will only go down from here, but ratings are still expected to be good again this week. Expect choppy trade to continue. USDA US Summary The 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks ... September 2024 USDA Supply & Demand The changes this month from the USDA were mostly minor adjustments from their August estimates, particularly with soybeans and wheat, which both saw little to no changes from last month. In the end US carryout totals for corn and soybeans both declined this month, while US wheat carryout remained unchanged. For corn, the direction of change was not in line with pre-report trade expectations. While traders forecast the USDA to make cuts to their US corn acreage and yield estimates, the agency left corn harvested acreage unchanged and increased their corn yield estimate half a bushel higher. The result was a US corn production of 15.186 billion bushels, 39 million larger than last month. However, incoming stocks were reduced by 55 million bushels, which canceled out the larger production total and left US 2024-25 new crop corn carryout at 4.586 billion bushels, 16 million smaller than August. Global corn carryout was down from last month but larger than trade expectations. The USDA left US soybean harvested acreage and yield unchanged this month. Beginning stocks were down 5 million bushels and ... August USDA Supply & Demand USDA raises bean yield estimate and cuts corn yield more than expected Corn The USDA reduced their U.S. corn yield estimate by 1.6 bpa, down to 175.4 bpa. That took U.S. corn production down 146 million bushels to 14.359 billion bushels. This was below the trade estimates of 175.9 bpa and 14.392 billion bushels. Corn carryout this fall (2021-22) is now estimated to be 1.530 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from last month. Ending stocks one year from now (2022-23) are estimated to be 1.388 billion bushels, with total use for the 2022-23 crop year down 45 million bushels from the July estimate. World 2022-23 corn carryout was reduced 6.26 million metric tons from the July estimate to 306.68 million tons. The bottom line, U.S. and world corn supplies tightened on the balance tables. Soybeans U.S. soybean yields were pegged at 51.9 bpa, up from 51.5 bpa last month. Traders expected yields to be lowered to 51.1 bpa. U.S. soybean production was estimated at 4.531 billion bushels, up 26 million bushels from last month. The trade estimate was 4.481 billion bushels. Thus, ... Comments are closed.