April 2025 USDA Supply & Demand

Overall, there were no major changes in today’s USDA old crop supply demand tables. The numbers were most favorable to corn, as US and world carryout both shrank a bit more than trade expected. Changes to the soybean numbers were negligible, while US wheat carryout increased more than expected.

The USDA left their South American production estimates unchanged this month.

Thirty minutes after the reports, prices across our crop markets were largely the same as they were five minutes before the reports. Traders seem to have shrugged at this round of reports. The May reports will be more important as they will include 2025-26 new crop supply demand tables.

As expected, the USDA lowered their US and world carryout estimates for 2024-25 old crop corn. The US corn carryout was 75 million bushels smaller than their March estimate, which was a bigger reduction than the average trade estimate forecast. The smaller US corn ending stocks were largely due to a 100 million bushel increase in exports. World corn carryout was 1.25 million tons (49 million bushels) smaller than March.

The US soybean carryout was reduced by 5 million bushels due to small changes in imports, crush, and residual. This was largely in line with trade expectations. World soybean carryout increased by 1.07 million tons (39 million bushels).

US wheat carryout increased by 27 million bushels month to month, more than trade expected.

Source: USDA, Reuters

March 2025 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings

March 1 Stocks were nearly exactly what traders expected them to be. Corn Stocks were down 201 million bushels, soybean stocks were 65 million bushels larger than last year, and wheat stocks were 148 million bushels larger than last year.

With no surprise in Stocks, traders are forced to focus on the Prospective Plantings report (and all the outside market news).  Corn acres were above the average trade estimate at 95.326 million acres. Soybean acres were smaller than the average trade estimate at 83.495 million acres. Wheat acres were slightly larger than the average trade estimate at 45.350 million acres.

That tells us our current Buy Signals heading into the weather risk period are something livestock feeders need to pay attention to. Those who like to buy courage calls to be able to put hedges on during a rally should be getting those in place.

Although we don’t know what the outside news will be in the next 60 days, the greatest risk of growing a crop will take place in that time period. Normally weather will give us a worry or two and a couple of Sell Signals. We are buyers now; we will be sellers then. Beans are already trading above the 20-day moving average which will likely make funds be buyers, corn will assault that green line shortly.

Source: USDA, Reuters

March 2025 USDA Supply & Demand

As expected, the USDA made only a few changes to their supply demand tables this month. First, they left US corn and soybean balance sheets essentially unchanged. Trade had expected US corn ending stocks to tighten slightly, so that could be seen as a slight disappointment. For US wheat, the USDA called for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, and lower exports which increased US wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels.

Global corn and soybean ending stocks both tightened a bit this month, while global wheat stocks increased slightly. The drop in global soybean ending stocks fell below the low end of trade estimates, so this would be the second small surprise of the day. Increased crush totals explained the change in world soybean carryout.

The USDA chose to leave its South American production estimates unchanged this month, which was in line with trade expectations.

Our analysis will be available shortly.

February 2025 USDA Supply & Demand

The USDA made some minimal tweaks to its U.S. carryout estimates in its February WASDE report while making some cuts to corn and soybean forecasts for South America.

The February report released Tuesday left its ending stocks estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans unchanged from the January report, which tripped up some analysts who had predicted reductions for both.

Analysts said it appeared the report overall was not particularly controversial although the reductions in South America’s corn and soybean production could encourage the bulls while waiting

The report kept the corn carryout at 1.54 billion bushels (bbu) as opposed to the analysts’ average of 1.52 bbu. The soybean estimate was unchanged at 380 million bushels (mbu) compared to the prediction of 374 mbu.

The wheat ending stocks for the United States were lowered to 794 mbu from 798 mbu in January.

Global ending stocks were lower than in January and came in below expectations:

Corn fell to 290.31 million metric tons (MT) worldwide from 293.34 million MT in the January report and missed the average projection of 292.52 million MT. Soybean ending stocks were cut to 124.34 million MT from 128.57 million MT, confounding analysts who had expected a slight decrease to 127.70 million MT. Wheat stocks narrowly missed estimates with a slight decline to 257.56 million MT.

South America’s production forecasts were slightly lower for Brazil while dry weather took a bite out of the outlook for Argentina.

The USDA lowered Argentina’s corn by 1 million MT to 50 million MT for corn and dropped soybeans to 49 million MT from 52 million MT in the January report.

Brazil’s prodigious soybean crop was estimated at 169 million MT, unchanged from the January report and fractionally lower than analysts had predicted. The corn harvest was projected at 126 million MT, down 1 million MT from last month and a tad below expectations.

Source: USDA, Reuters

January 2025 USDA Supply & Demand, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings

The January reports were bullish in general. The USDA lowered their yield estimates for US corn and soybeans, pulling both down below the low end of the trade range. The corn yield was cut 3.8 bpa to 179.3 bpa, while the soybean yield was cut 1 bpa to 50.7 bpa. The end result was that corn and soybean carryout also came in below the smallest trade estimates. The US corn carryout dropped to 1.540 billion bushels (-198 million), while soybeans dropped to 380 million bushels (-90 million).

Markets surged higher on the bullish reports. The Sell Signal in soybeans resumed on the price surge. We recommend leaning into these Sell Signals and adding to your recent sales. If you sold up to our recommended levels, add another 5% on this rally. If you aren’t sold up to our recommended levels, use this opportunity to catch up.

Although we are happy to receive the smaller numbers, we are cautious because stocks are still expected to be large and South America’s harvest has already begun. We are also about ready to get tough with our biggest buyer – China. A lot of buying has come into the market, and it will be hard for us to do business at its recent pace for the next 90 days, which happens to be when a lot of farmers need to get some sales made. While we don’t want to rain on the parade, selling into this strength makes good sense to us.

Source: USDA, Reuters

December 2024 USDA Supply & Demand

Strong corn demand improved the balance sheet beyond expectations

Strong demand totals for corn provided a bullish surprise from today’s WASDE report. Ethanol use increased 50 million bushels, and corn exports increased 150 million bushels. With no changes to the supply numbers this month, the 200 million bushel increase to corn demand fell straight to the bottom line, lowering the US corn carryout total from 1.938 to 1.738 billion bushels. The 200 million bushel reduction to US carryout was larger than trade expected and helped corn prices move higher following the report release.

We had a 1-Box Sell Signal for corn trigger this morning. Following the favorable USDA supply demand adjustment and the higher price move, we are ready to increase our recommendation on this Sell Signal to 10% of 2024 production. That brings our total recommendation for 2024 corn to 80%.

Roach Ag Corn sales recommendations:

2023 – 100% sold

2024 – 80% sold

The USDA made no changes to their monthly supply demand table for US soybeans.

US wheat carryout declined 20 million bushels this month following a 25 million bushel increase to exports (offset by a 5 million increase to imports). The slightly reduced wheat carryout of 795 million bushels was still +14% above last year.

Source: USDA, Reuters

November 2024 USDA Supply & Demand

Futures jumped Friday afternoon after the USDA projections for corn and soybeans came in generally below expectations.

Corn, soybeans and wheat prices moved quickly higher on numbers that turned out to be slightly more bullish than had been predicted.

The USDA reduced its corn crop projection by 60 million bushels (mbu) from last month’s report to 15.143 billion bushels, 1% lower than last year. The report left the acreage projection unchanged at 82.7 million acres and made a slight reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per harvested acre (bpa).

In addition, ethanol use was unchanged at 4.45 billion bushels.

Soybean production was reduced by 3%, or 121 mbu, from the October forecast to 4.461 billion bushels, which would still be a record high. Yields were cut to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa last month while acreage was unchanged from last month’s estimate of 86.3 million acres, but still 5% higher than 2023.

The smaller crop was, however, predicted to trim U.S. soybean ending stocks to what one analyst called a “more manageable 470 mbu.” Corn stocks were expected to shrink to 1.93 billion bushels.

The USDA’s wheat production estimate was unchanged at 1.97 billion bushels, unchanged from the October prediction. Ending stocks were increased by 3 mbu to 815 mbu.

The cotton crop was reduced slightly to 14.2 million bales, which was still 18% higher than last year.

Worldwide ending stocks projections for corn and soybeans were reduced and came in below expectations. The reductions, however, were pinned in large part to the smaller U.S. crops rather than trouble in South America.

The USDA left most of its South American corn and soybean numbers unchanged from last month, although it nudged the 2023-24 Argentine soybean crop a little higher wile reducing its estimate for the 2024-25 wheat harvest.

Source: USDA, Reuters

October 2024 USDA Supply & Demand

The USDA made only small changes to the numbers that they gave us last month.  

The US corn yield estimate was increased +0.2 to 183.8 bpa, increasing production slightly. The smaller beginning stocks number from the quarterly report was partially offset by a 25 million bushel export increase. In the end, US corn ending stocks fell by 58 million bushels to 1.999 billion bushels. 

For soybeans, the yield was lowered -.01 bpa to 53.1 bpa, which dropped production slightly to 4.582 billion bushels. Other small adjustments to beginning stocks and residual use left US soybean ending stocks unchanged at 550 million bushels again this month.

World carryout totals for corn and soybeans were nearly exactly in line with trade expectations, while the world wheat carryout total was above the average trade estimate, but well within the range of trade guesses.

Overall, the fundamentals haven’t changed much over the past month.

Source: USDA, Reuters

September 2024 Quarterly Grain Stocks & Small Grains Summary

The USDA pegged Sept. 1 US corn stocks at 1.760 billion bushels, down from trade expectations of 1.844 billion bushels, but 400 bushels larger than last September 1.  Soybean stocks were 342 million bushels, down from trade expectations of 351 million bushels, but 78 million bushels larger than last year.

The USDA pegged all-wheat production in 2024 at 1.971 billion bushels. This was 5 million bushels more than trade expected and up 9% from 2023’s 1.80 billion bushel production. All winter wheat was 1.349 billion bushels, 1 million less than trade expected. HRW was 770 million, SRW was 372 million, Durum was 80 million, and WW was 236 million.

Traders did not react strongly to the numbers. Corn moved about a nickel higher after the reports, while soybeans and wheat improved a couple cents.

We have Sell Signals for corn and soybeans. Continue making sales.

Source: USDA, Reuters

September 2024 USDA Supply & Demand

The changes this month from the USDA were mostly minor adjustments from their August estimates, particularly with soybeans and wheat, which both saw little to no changes from last month. In the end US carryout totals for corn and soybeans both declined this month, while US wheat carryout remained unchanged.

For corn, the direction of change was not in line with pre-report trade expectations. While traders forecast the USDA to make cuts to their US corn acreage and yield estimates, the agency left corn harvested acreage unchanged and increased their corn yield estimate half a bushel higher. The result was a US corn production of 15.186 billion bushels, 39 million larger than last month. However, incoming stocks were reduced by 55 million bushels, which canceled out the larger production total and left US 2024-25 new crop corn carryout at 4.586 billion bushels, 16 million smaller than August. Global corn carryout was down from last month but larger than trade expectations.

The USDA left US soybean harvested acreage and yield unchanged this month. Beginning stocks were down 5 million bushels and residual usage was up by 2 million, leaving 2024-25 US soybean ending stocks at 550 million bushels, 10 million fewer than last month. Global soybean carryout was slightly larger than last month when trade expected a small decrease.

The USDA made no changes to their US wheat supply demand table this month. It looked identical to August. Global wheat carryout increased by +600k tons, when trade expected them to decrease by -600k tons.

Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX