11 February February 2025 USDA Supply & Demand February 11, 2025 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 The USDA made some minimal tweaks to its U.S. carryout estimates in its February WASDE report while making some cuts to corn and soybean forecasts for South America. The February report released Tuesday left its ending stocks estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans unchanged from the January report, which tripped up some analysts who had predicted reductions for both. Analysts said it appeared the report overall was not particularly controversial although the reductions in South America’s corn and soybean production could encourage the bulls while waiting The report kept the corn carryout at 1.54 billion bushels (bbu) as opposed to the analysts’ average of 1.52 bbu. The soybean estimate was unchanged at 380 million bushels (mbu) compared to the prediction of 374 mbu. The wheat ending stocks for the United States were lowered to 794 mbu from 798 mbu in January. Global ending stocks were lower than in January and came in below expectations: Corn fell to 290.31 million metric tons (MT) worldwide from 293.34 million MT in the January report and missed the average projection of 292.52 million MT. Soybean ending stocks were cut to 124.34 million MT from 128.57 million MT, confounding analysts who had expected a slight decrease to 127.70 million MT. Wheat stocks narrowly missed estimates with a slight decline to 257.56 million MT. South America’s production forecasts were slightly lower for Brazil while dry weather took a bite out of the outlook for Argentina. The USDA lowered Argentina’s corn by 1 million MT to 50 million MT for corn and dropped soybeans to 49 million MT from 52 million MT in the January report. Brazil’s prodigious soybean crop was estimated at 169 million MT, unchanged from the January report and fractionally lower than analysts had predicted. The corn harvest was projected at 126 million MT, down 1 million MT from last month and a tad below expectations. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts February 2021 USDA Supply & Demand The USDA disappointed bullish traders with conservative usage and carryover estimates. The USDA corn demand estimates might have surprised traders the most. After seeing big business to China in corn and ethanol, traders had allowed their demand ideas to expand beyond the amounts the USDA was comfortable with. USDA left U.S. ethanol production unchanged, raised corn exports by a measly 50 million bushels, and lowered U.S. corn ending stocks by 50 million bushels, compared to the 160 million bushel reduction traders were expecting. Corn reacted by trading down 10 cents. U.S. bean carryover was reduced to 120 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 123 million bushels. There were little changes in U.S. bean usage. U.S. bean exports were increased by 20 million bushels. South American bean and corn production numbers were left unchanged. All wheat supply demand numbers were left unchanged from last month. When the smoke cleared traders were left with disappointing U.S. numbers heading into the South American harvest. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX February 2024 USDA Supply & Demand The February USDA reports released Thursday was expected to be largely neutral, and the futures market’s immediate reaction appeared to confirm the predictions. The ripple effect of the USDA’s bearish forecast on Brazilian soybeans in comparison to Conab’s more-aggressive cuts left futures stuck in place for a while as analysts weighed the ripple effect on U.S. exports and ending stocks. Wheat futures quickly lost a dime or more while corn was little changed as well at midday. Corn: U.S. ending stocks were increased to 2.172 billion bushels (bbu) based on lower domestic use while global production was reduced on declines in Brazil and Mexico. Foreign The average price projection was unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. Soybeans: Slower exports cut the export forecast for the year by 35 MMT from January, leading to a new total of 1.72 bbu. Ending stocks were raised to 315 million bushels as the crush forecast remained unchanged, trimming the average price to $12.65 per bushel. Wheat: U.S. wheat supplies for 2023-24 were projected at stable with exports little changed at 725 mbu. Ending stocks were raised to 658 ... February USDA Supply & Demand Small fundamental changes disappoint bullish traders After the USDA released its numbers, prices slid across all crop markets before bouncing 15 minutes later. Kansas City wheat gave us the strongest post-report trade. KC March wheat rallied to new recent highs following the report with traders concerned about dry weather forecast in the western Southern Plains. Chicago and Minneapolis wheat also firmed but are currently trading below recent highs. This month’s 2022-23 U.S. corn outlook forecast lower corn used for ethanol by 25 million bushels. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The USDA lowered US soybean crush by 15 million bushels. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 225 million bushels, up 15 million. The 2022-23 U.S. wheat supply and demand numbers were little changed this month, with only minor revisions to domestic use and ending stocks. The global numbers contained no shocks either. Argentine production estimates were smaller than traders expected but were well below the USDA’s January estimates. Source: USDA, Bloomberg January 2025 USDA Supply & Demand, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings The January reports were bullish in general. The USDA lowered their yield estimates for US corn and soybeans, pulling both down below the low end of the trade range. The corn yield was cut 3.8 bpa to 179.3 bpa, while the soybean yield was cut 1 bpa to 50.7 bpa. The end result was that corn and soybean carryout also came in below the smallest trade estimates. The US corn carryout dropped to 1.540 billion bushels (-198 million), while soybeans dropped to 380 million bushels (-90 million). Markets surged higher on the bullish reports. The Sell Signal in soybeans resumed on the price surge. We recommend leaning into these Sell Signals and adding to your recent sales. If you sold up to our recommended levels, add another 5% on this rally. If you aren’t sold up to our recommended levels, use this opportunity to catch up. Although we are happy to receive the smaller numbers, we are cautious because stocks are still expected to be large and South America’s harvest has already begun. We are also about ready to get ... February USDA Supply & Demand USDA reports in line with pre-report estimates. No Surprises As you look at the table of numbers below, you will notice the biggest change came in Brazilian soybeans, which were cut 5 million tons from last month’s estimate, but still came right in the middle of what traders expected. The USDA expects a few more bushels of crop carryout, both in the world and U.S., but not enough of a difference to move prices. This is about the most neutral report we have seen in a while. Traders want to be bullish, thinking the combination of further South American crop losses, strong demand, and rampant inflation are all working in their favor. Spec funds are building bigger long positions in corn and beans and bailing out of short wheat. U.S. equity major indexes cleared the green line 20-day moving average yesterday and are posting additional gains today. Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... Comments are closed.