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News and USDA Data

A collection/archive of USDA Report data and our post-report comments, as well as featured article by Roach Ag Daily Grain Plan editors and writers.

John Roach
John Roach
John Roach's Blog

February 2021 USDA Supply & Demand

The USDA disappointed bullish traders with conservative usage and carryover estimates.

The USDA corn demand estimates might have surprised traders the most. After seeing big business to China in corn and ethanol, traders had allowed their demand ideas to expand beyond the amounts the USDA was comfortable with.

USDA left U.S. ethanol production unchanged, raised corn exports by a measly 50 million bushels, and lowered U.S. corn ending stocks by 50 million bushels, compared to the 160 million bushel reduction traders were expecting. Corn reacted by trading down 10 cents.

U.S. bean carryover was reduced to 120 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 123 million bushels. There were little changes in U.S. bean usage. U.S. bean exports were increased by 20 million bushels. South American bean and corn production numbers were left unchanged.

All wheat supply demand numbers were left unchanged from last month.

When the smoke cleared traders were left with disappointing U.S. numbers heading into the South American harvest.

Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX

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Brokerage and consulting services offered by Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd, an NFA-registered introducing broker. The trading of derivatives such as futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.