28 March March 2025 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings March 28, 2025 By John Roach USDA Supply/Demand 0 March 1 Stocks were nearly exactly what traders expected them to be. Corn Stocks were down 201 million bushels, soybean stocks were 65 million bushels larger than last year, and wheat stocks were 148 million bushels larger than last year. With no surprise in Stocks, traders are forced to focus on the Prospective Plantings report (and all the outside market news). Corn acres were above the average trade estimate at 95.326 million acres. Soybean acres were smaller than the average trade estimate at 83.495 million acres. Wheat acres were slightly larger than the average trade estimate at 45.350 million acres. That tells us our current Buy Signals heading into the weather risk period are something livestock feeders need to pay attention to. Those who like to buy courage calls to be able to put hedges on during a rally should be getting those in place. Although we don’t know what the outside news will be in the next 60 days, the greatest risk of growing a crop will take place in that time period. Normally weather will give us a worry or two and a couple of Sell Signals. We are buyers now; we will be sellers then. Beans are already trading above the 20-day moving average which will likely make funds be buyers, corn will assault that green line shortly. Source: USDA, Reuters Related Posts March 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Farmers tell USDA, “We are not planting as many corn and bean acres as traders expected.” The quarterly stocks were slightly smaller than expected for corn and slightly larger on beans and wheat. No surprises in the Stocks report. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX Although corn acres are up less than 0.5%, four out of the top five states cut corn acres. Farmers decided to plant 5.4% more soybeans nationally and increased acres in each of the top five bean states. The surprise came in the wheat complex, where acreage was up 3.4% from the last estimate and a whopping 8.8% from last year. The bullishness in today’s reports is a little surprising, since acreage can certainly increase between now and the June report. By boosting the prices, traders will encourage the additional corn and bean acres the marketplace wants. How about the Buy Signals on soybeans, meal, and wheat this morning? Our strategy is to make an increment of sales on the next Sell Signal, which should be just around the corner. Source: All Slides from the USDA Executive Summary For full USDA reports, click on links below. Grain ... March 2022 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings USDA Stocks and plantings positive to wheat, Plantings positive to corn, negative to beans The USDA Quarterly Stocks report was not far off trade expectations for any of the crops. Corn and wheat stocks were both slightly lower, while bean stocks were slightly higher than the average trade guess. The biggest surprise came in Prospective Plantings. Farmers indicated they would plant 89.4 million acres of corn, 2.5 million acres less than traders thought. Farmers indicated 2.2 million more acres soybeans instead. After the aggressive market shakeout this week, the USDA report was released with many traders chased to the sidelines. Corn and wheat prices shot higher following the report, with July and December corn posting new life of contract highs. Bean prices initially fell following the reports but so far have held well above the low of this week’s range. Wheat prices surged higher and ended our Buy Signal in Chicago wheat. Wheat prices are still trading under the green line 20-day moving average, which is the next target for this upside move. The December corn acreage was reported 210,000 acres below ... March USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings US soybean stocks and plantings smaller than expected. There weren't huge surprises in the March 31 USDA reports. Overall, the reports trended bullish for soybeans. March 1 US soybean stocks were 57 million bushels smaller than the average trade estimate, and intended acres to be planted were 737,000 acres smaller than the trade estimate. Bean prices were quickly up about 30 cents following the report release. For corn, March 1 stocks were 69 million bushels small than the average trade estimate, but prospective plantings came in 1.116 million acres above the average trade estimate. Wheat stocks were 12 million bushels larger than expected, and Wheat plantings totaled a little more than 1 million acres larger than the trade expected. The current rallies are providing an opportunity to dribble a little more corn into the market on our current Sell Signal, and we are not far away from generating a soybean Sell Signal that we are looking forward to making more sales on. We have learned historically that selling corn in April and beans in May are very good strategies, if there is not a substantial ... March 2024 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings US corn stocks and acreage smaller than expected March 1st US corn stocks came in at 8.347 billion bushels, compared to 7.396 billion last year. Traders expected stocks to be about 80 million bushels larger than the government counted. Corn prices were further helped with the USDA estimating 90.036 million corn acres for 2024, down from 91.776 million expected by traders. Beans and wheat stocks were both slightly higher than trade estimates and larger last year. The important fundamentals this week came today. The USDA numbers gave us a positive surprise in corn. The technical price action, however, is more impressive. After giving us Sell Signals in corn, beans, and some of the wheat contracts, prices fell sharply. The lows this week, however, were well defended today and it appears that we will close corn, beans, and wheat all above their respective 20-day averages, a positive performance in anybody’s book. This means we will start next week with spec funds holding major short positions going against them in an uptrending market. I think they will be buyers and hope that ... Sept 2021 USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Annual Small Grains Summary Reports More corn and beans, less wheat Stocks The USDA reported bigger corn and bean stocks than traders expected. As you can see from the numbers below, corn and wheat stocks were within the range of trade estimates, but the USDA found more beans than anybody expected. USDA Summary Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports, and farm program administrative data, the 2020 corn for grain production is revised down 71.0 million bushels from the previous estimate. Corn silage production is revised down 54 thousand tons. Planted area is revised to 90.7 million acres, and area harvested for grain is revised to 82.3 million acres. Area harvested for silage is revised to .71 million acres. The 2020 grain yield, at 171.4 bushels per acre, is down 0.6 bushel from the previous estimate. The 2020 silage yield, at 20.5 tons per acre, remains unchanged from the previous estimate. A table with 2020 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on pages 17 and 18 of the Stocks report. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 68.1 million bushels, down ... January 2025 USDA Supply & Demand, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings The January reports were bullish in general. The USDA lowered their yield estimates for US corn and soybeans, pulling both down below the low end of the trade range. The corn yield was cut 3.8 bpa to 179.3 bpa, while the soybean yield was cut 1 bpa to 50.7 bpa. The end result was that corn and soybean carryout also came in below the smallest trade estimates. The US corn carryout dropped to 1.540 billion bushels (-198 million), while soybeans dropped to 380 million bushels (-90 million). Markets surged higher on the bullish reports. The Sell Signal in soybeans resumed on the price surge. We recommend leaning into these Sell Signals and adding to your recent sales. If you sold up to our recommended levels, add another 5% on this rally. If you aren’t sold up to our recommended levels, use this opportunity to catch up. Although we are happy to receive the smaller numbers, we are cautious because stocks are still expected to be large and South America’s harvest has already begun. We are also about ready to get ... Comments are closed.