The USDA surprised traders with a June 1 Corn Stocks estimate 113 million bushels smaller than the average trade estimate, and just below the low end of trade guesses. While the smaller corn stocks number was a bullish surprise, it was still 14% larger than last June.
Soybean stocks were 15 million bushels larger than the average trade estimate, while wheat stocks were 14 million bushels smaller than the average trade estimate. Both estimates were right in the middle of the trade range, so it was not surprising like the corn stocks estimate.
The smaller than expected corn stocks total was partially offset by a corn acreage estimate that was 5,000 acres above the March 31 report. Trade was expecting the corn acreage to go down, so the new estimate came in 351k acres larger than the average trade estimate. Thus, it was a mixed bag from the two key reports for corn. Prices were down -4 cents heading into the reports and are currently +3 cents higher 15 minutes post-report.
Soybean acres increased by 665k acres, which was right in line with the average trade estimate. Soybeans swung from trading -13 cents lower pre-report, swung briefly above the 20-day average, then settled to +4 cents higher 15 minutes after the report. Traders were possibly poised for more bearish soybean numbers.
The total wheat acreage estimate was reduced by 1.035 million acres, which was a larger reduction that trade expected. In fact, the wheat acreage total came in 260k below the low end of trade estimates, going down as the second bullish surprise of today’s reports. Winter wheat accounted for 900k of the total acreage reduction. Chicago wheat was down -5 cents pre-report and traded +10 cents 15 minutes after the reports. All three wheat classes were in Buy Signals this morning, the higher move may help end the Buy Signals.
Source: USDA, Reuters