The USDA increased the corn and soybean yield estimates this month towards the high side of the trade estimates. They now peg the US corn yield at 181.2 bpa and the soybean yield at 53.1 bpa. The USDA also increased the US wheat yield estimate 0.3 bpa to 48.1 bpa. This led to ending stocks estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat all coming in above the average trade estimates.
Overall, this was a bearish report. Crop markets immediately sold off quickly as the spec funds raced to reduce the size of their net long positions.
We will go into more detail in Monday’s letter. Have a great weekend.
USDA WASDE Commentary
Corn
This month’s 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2026/27 are raised 173 million bushels based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production is higher as well, up 234 million bushels to 16.0 billion on a 2.7-bushel increase in yield to 181.2 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 88.5 million acres. Total use is increased 125 million bushels to 16.3 billion. Each component of use is increased. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion on increased supplies. With supply increased more than use, ending stocks rise by 282 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.70.
Soybeans
Soybean production is forecast at 4.56 billion bushels, up 27 million on higher yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 85.9 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 53.1 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the September forecast. Soybean supplies are raised 17 million bushels to 4.90 billion on higher production partly offset by lower beginning stocks. With a 10-million-bushel increase to exports and unchanged crush, ending stocks are up 5 million bushels to 315 million.
Wheat
The outlook for 2026/27 U.S. wheat this month is for higher supplies, increased domestic use, reduced exports, and greater ending stocks. Supplies are raised by 8 million bushels on higher imports and production. The NASS Small Grains Annual Summary estimated wheat production slightly greater at 1,534 million bushels on an increased yield more than offsetting reduced harvested area. Despite the increase, this remains the smallest U.S. wheat production since 1970. Domestic use is raised 10 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use.
Source: USDA, Reuters