USDA Report Summary
The latest USDA yield estimates for US corn and soybeans were largely in line with trade expectations, while the US wheat supply demand table was left unchanged from last month.
The USDA lowered their US corn yield estimate from 180.7 bpa to 178.5 bpa, which was a fraction of a bushel larger than the 178.2 bpa average trade estimate. While it was not quite as large of a decrease as some expected, it must have helped ease worries that the USDA could have surprised everyone with a yield increase. Just ahead of the report corn prices were trading a few cents lower on the day and immediately following report, corn prices swung to the positive, moving about a dime higher.
The lower yield dropped US corn production by a little over 200 million bushels, which was offset by a reduction of 150 million bushels to feed & residual. Ethanol and exports were left unchanged and the end result was ending stocks dropping 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion bushels. Not a huge change.
The USDA increased their US soybean yield one-tenth of a bushel to 52.8 bpa, when trade was expecting two-tenths decrease. This didn’t impact trade much, as soybeans were trading down 20-25 cents prior to the report and essentially the same post report. The supply demand table for soybeans was only tweaked slightly with production up 16 million bushels and exports up 25 million bushels. The end result was ending stocks dropping 10 million bushels to 310 million bushels, a small tightening. If China continues to make soybean purchases, perhaps the export total could increase further down the road.
USDA commentary
Corn
This month’s 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2026/27 are 23 million bushels lower based primarily on a larger export forecast for 2025/26. Corn production for 2026/27 is forecast at 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million from last month on a 2.2-bushel reduction in yield to 178.5 bushels per acre and a fractional decrease in harvested area to 88.5 million. Total U.S. corn use for 2026/27 is forecast down 150 million bushels to 16.2 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 150 million bushels to 6.0 billion. Exports are unchanged at 3.3 billion bushels despite lower production, reflecting expectations of steady demand. With declining supply only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks are lowered 86 million bushels to 1.6 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised $0.30 per bushel to $4.80. WASDE-675-2 Global coarse grain production for 2026/27 is forecast 5.1 million tons lower to 1.588 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, use, and stocks relative to last month.
Foreign corn production is forecast lower with decreases for India, Kenya, and Russia that are partially offset by increases for the EU and other countries. India corn production is lowered, with reduced area harvested and below normal rainfall lowering yield prospects.
Soybeans
The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher production and exports, and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million with higher harvested area and yield. Harvested area is raised 0.1 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 52.8 bushels per acre is up 0.1 bushels from last month. The crush forecast is unchanged while the soybean export forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion. Ending stocks are projected at 310 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.00 per bushel, up $0.60 from last month. The soybean meal price is increased $30 to $340 per short ton and the soybean oil price is unchanged at 70 cents per pound.
Wheat All of the aggregate supply and use categories for 2026/27 U.S. wheat are unchanged this month. However, there are offsetting by-class changes for exports. White wheat exports are raised 20 million bushels and Hard Red Winter and Hard Red Spring exports are lowered 15 and 5 million, respectively. This change is based on reported sales and shipments of these wheat classes to date and their prices relative to key competitors. The season-average farm price (SAFP) is increased $0.20 per bushel to $6.40 based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year. Additionally, the higher wheat SAFP is supported by increased U.S. corn prices. This month’s 2026/27 global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, greater consumption, reduced trade, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 3.5 million tons to 1,103.0 million mainly on higher production in several major exporting countries.
Source: USDA, Reuters