7 March March USDA Supply & Demand March 7, 2023 By John Roach General, USDA Supply/Demand 0 U.S. Corn Carryout Grows while Argentine Crops Shrink Today’s USDA Supply & Demand report was a mixed bag of information. U.S. Corn exports were reduced 75 million bushels from the February estimate, leading to a larger than expected jump in domestic ending stocks. On the other hand, Argentina’s corn production estimate was reduced 3 million tons more than expected. The bean numbers were bullish, causing an initial jump in futures prices that has since cooled off (as of this writing). A 10 million bushel cut to U.S. crush was more than offset by a 25 million bushel increase in exports, leading to a net reduction in ending stocks of 15 million bushels. Pre-report trade was expecting just a slight 5 million bushel decrease in carryout. Argentina bean production was reduced from 41 million tons to 33 million, smaller than the average trade guess of 36.55. The U.S. wheat balance sheet was left unchanged. World wheat supplies shrank slightly, though that cut was largely attributed to an adjustment to China’s 20/21 feed and residual use carried through to world new crop beginning inventory. Without any major surprises in today’s report, traders will shift their interest to the closely followed Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings reports due out at 11:00am on March 31st. Source: USDA, Bloomberg Related Posts March 2021 USDA Supply & Demand USDA leaves U.S. numbers mostly unchanged and tightened world wheat numbers slightly Traders’ initial reaction to USDA numbers put pressure on corn and beans but boosted wheat prices. As you can see from the tables below, U.S. carryover numbers were unchanged from last month. World corn and bean carryover numbers were just slightly changed. World wheat carryover declined by 3 million tons. South American crops were little changed. Brazilian bean production was increased by 1 million tons. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX March USDA Supply & Demand The USDA did not offer any surprises today. Grain usage estimates were in line with traders’ expectations. In South America, the Argentine corn and bean crops were right in line with what trade expected. In Brazil, the soybean crop was 2 million tons smaller and corn crop 1 million ton larger than the average trade forecast. Most traders think the USDA will reduce the Brazilian bean crop further in subsequent reports. Source: USDA, StoneX, Bloomberg The USDA report did not take traders’ attention away from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. News reports Wednesday indicate more intense negotiations for a settlement were being facilitated by Israel. Facing an onslaught of Russian destruction alone, Ukraine is being encouraged to negotiate a settlement. Commodity traders are betting that will occur, as of this writing. It is not too late to plant a crop there, and crop prices are reacting accordingly. They may see the Ukraine situation differently tomorrow. Source: USDA, StoneX March 2024 USDA Supply & Demand USDA reduced world crop surplus. Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX US 2023-24 grain carryout was left unchanged from last month except for a slight increase in wheat. As we’ve outlined in recent webinars, the USDA has not changed supply demand tables hardly at all since we began receiving them in May. World carryout was reduced for each of the three crops we follow. In each case, production was slightly smaller and consumption was increased, thereby decreasing carryout. The USDA is still using a bigger corn and bean production estimates for South America than most of the private estimates, so these stock estimates will likely be reduced next month. Twenty minutes after the report was released, corn, beans, and wheat were all sitting near their respective highs for the day. Corn moved solidly above the green line 20-day moving average. Look for a Sell Signal on Monday. We have been waiting for this corn Sell Signal but hate the price level. Keep your sales small on Monday. If you need to generate cash, make sales. If you want to dribble out a few bushels ... January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings January 2021 USDA Supply & Demand, Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings: USDA tightens stocks The USDA reduced nearly all U.S. numbers below the average trade estimate. Supplies are smaller than traders thought, and markets surged. The biggest surprise in today’s estimates came in the corn market. The USDA reduced the U.S. 2020 corn yield by 3.8 bushels from their December estimate, taking it down 3.3 bushels from the average trade estimate. U.S. corn production was pegged at 14.182 billion bushels, down from 14.507 billion bushels in December. U.S. corn carryout was cut 150 million bushels, down to 1.552 billion bushels. The USDA also reduced the U.S. bean yield by 0.5 bushel/acre down to 50.2 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below trade estimates. That pulled U.S. bean production down 35 million bushels from the December estimate and 23 million below trade estimates. The USDA pegged U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels down from the December estimate of 175 million bushels. This was one of a few estimates that were bigger than the trade expected, their guesses averaged 139 million bushels. U.S. wheat carryout ... September 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production USDA numbers not as big as feared Crop prices initially broke lower following the USDA reports but found waiting buyers and were soon trading higher on the day, posting a reversal at this juncture. This might have been the low day of this price valley. The hurricane damage brought all the bears out of the woodwork, and they had already pressed prices down far enough. The USDA report pegged the national corn yield at 176.3 bushels per acre, up half a bushel from the average trade estimate and 1.7 bushel per acre higher than last month. The USDA forecast national corn production at 14.996 billion bushels, up about 150 million bushels from the average trade guess and 250 million bushels above last month. Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.408 billion bushels on August 31, 2022. Some might want to make a big deal out of the carryover increasing over 1.4 billion bushels, but we expect demand to be larger than this latest USDA estimate, which was up 150 million bushels from last month. The USDA’s bean yield was 50.6 bushels ... May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production May 2021 USDA Supply & Demand and Crop Production: Old crop wheat and new crop corn stocks were both bigger than expected. Following the USDA reports today, wheat prices immediately slid lower. The corn market traded lower for a little bit but quickly began to recover. The bean market immediately recovered some small losses following the report. As you can see from the following table, wheat was the only crop that had a bigger carryout estimate for 2020-21 compared to trade estimates and last month’s estimates. The USDA old crop corn carryout estimate was slightly smaller than trade expected, while beans were right on target. For the first estimate of the 2021-22 new crop year, corn ending stocks at 1.507 billion bushels were larger than traders expected. New crop wheat carryout was also bigger than expected with beans right where the traders thought. The USDA barely changed 2021-21 world ending stocks for corn, beans, and wheat from their April estimates. That left today’s USDA world corn number considerably larger than traders expected. Beans and wheat were close to what was ... Comments are closed.