Quick Summary
The headline numbers were that the USDA lowered their US corn and soybean yield estimates to 180.7 bpa and 52.7 bpa, respectively. However, this was more than offset by increases of more than 1 million acres each to harvested acreage for corn and soybeans. In the end, the USDA production estimates ended up a little larger than last month.
Smaller beginning stocks and increased usage lowered the corn ending stocks total by 137 million bushels. For soybeans, beginning stocks were slightly lower, production higher, and usage higher, resulting in ending stocks being 10 million bushels higher.
The US wheat balance sheets were little changed with ending stocks declining just 5 million bushels.
The USDA numbers didn’t impact prices much. Twenty minutes after the reports, prices for corn, soybean, and wheat are all within a few cents of where they were trading prior to the reports.
We have active Buy Signals across the board today, though if today’s higher prices hold, they will begin to wind down soon.
USDA Summaries
Corn:
This month’s 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 16.0 billion bushels, up just 13 million from last month with a 1.2-million acre increase in harvested area that was largely offset by a reduced yield forecast. This would be the second largest U.S. corn harvest on record. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is down 2.3 bushels per acre from last month to 180.7 bushels per acre. Corn beginning stocks are lowered 75 million bushels to 1.9 billion, reflecting raised exports for 2025/26. Sorghum production is forecast down 84 million bushels to 296 million. The yield is forecast at 55.4 bushels per acre, 13.9 bushels below last month’s projection, while harvested area is down 0.1 million acres. Total U.S. corn use for 2026/27 is forecast 75 million bushels higher to 16.3 billion. Exports are raised 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting increased global demand and constrained exports for Ukraine. With use rising more than supply, ending stocks are lowered 137 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised $0.10 per bushel to $4.50, reflecting tighter ending stocks and expectations for futures and cash prices to date.
Soybeans:
U.S. oilseed production for 2026/27 is projected at 132.7 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month as higher soybean production is partly offset by lower peanut and cottonseed crops. Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, up 44 million due to a higher harvested area and a slightly lower yield. Harvested area is revised up 1.4 million acres from the July projection to 85.8 million on higher acreage for Missouri, Mississippi, and Minnesota. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 52.7 bushels per acre is 0.3 bushels below last month’s projection and last year’s record yield. Soybean supplies for 2026/27 are projected up 39 million bushels from last month as higher production is partly offset by lower beginning stocks due to a slight increase to crush in the prior marketing year. U.S. soybean crush for 2026/27 is increased 30 million bushels to 2.78 billion, driven by robust crush margins and stronger demand for both soybean meal and oil. Soybean meal exports are raised by 0.7 million short tons to 22.7 million, reflecting strong global demand and increases to domestic use and imports for both 2025/26 and 2026/27 in several markets, including the Philippines, Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, the EU, and Ecuador. U.S. soybean oil domestic use is raised following higher demand in the prior marketing year. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels to 320 million on higher supplies. Prices are unchanged for 2026/27. The U.S. season-average soybean farm price is forecast at $11.40 per bushel
Wheat:
The outlook for 2026/27 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production, which is forecast at 1,531 million bushels, down 5 million from last month on decreased harvested area and yield. Hard Red Winter and Durum account for most of the reductions this month. Projected 2026/27 ending stocks are reduced 5 million bushels to 717 million and are down 22 percent from last year. The projected 2026/27 season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.20 on a lower stocks-to-use ratio and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
Source: USDA, Reuters