This morning, we listened to Arlan Suderman (StoneX economist) give his market update prior to the USDA reports. He pointed out that in prior comparable years when crops started out in good condition, like this year, the average yield ended at +7.6% above trend. Trade has considered these potential increased production totals and prices have adjusted accordingly.
From the Reports:
The USDA increased the 2024-25 soybean carryout by 95 million bushels beyond the pre-report trade guess. Corn and wheat went in the opposite direction, with the USDA lowering carryout for both more than trade expected.
The big surprise in the Crop Production report was that US soybean harvested acreage increased by 1% compared to the July report, and the US yield came in at 53.2 bpa, above the 52.5 bpa average trade estimate.
Total planted US corn acreage was -1% lower than July and the yield was increased from 181.0 to 183.1 bpa.
US wheat production was down -1% from July. The average yield was 52.2 bpa, up 0.4 bpa from last month. Harvested acreage for US wheat was down -2%.
World corn and wheat carryout were down from last month but nearly exactly in line with trade expectations. Global soybean carryout was up about 6 million metric tons, when trade expected an unchanged number.
Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX