USDA reduced world crop surplus.
Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX
US 2023-24 grain carryout was left unchanged from last month except for a slight increase in wheat. As we?ve outlined in recent webinars, the USDA has not changed supply demand tables hardly at all since we began receiving them in May.
World carryout was reduced for each of the three crops we follow. In each case, production was slightly smaller and consumption was increased, thereby decreasing carryout. The USDA is still using a bigger corn and bean production estimates for South America than most of the private estimates, so these stock estimates will likely be reduced next month.
Twenty minutes after the report was released, corn, beans, and wheat were all sitting near their respective highs for the day. Corn moved solidly above the green line 20-day moving average. Look for a Sell Signal on Monday.
We have been waiting for this corn Sell Signal but hate the price level. Keep your sales small on Monday. If you need to generate cash, make sales. If you want to dribble out a few bushels of new crop that is OK too. We will be more willing sellers on the Sell Signal following this one.