USDA raises bean yield estimate and cuts corn yield more than expected
Corn
The USDA reduced their U.S. corn yield estimate by 1.6 bpa, down to 175.4 bpa. That took U.S. corn production down 146 million bushels to 14.359 billion bushels. This was below the trade estimates of 175.9 bpa and 14.392 billion bushels.
Corn carryout this fall (2021-22) is now estimated to be 1.530 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from last month. Ending stocks one year from now (2022-23) are estimated to be 1.388 billion bushels, with total use for the 2022-23 crop year down 45 million bushels from the July estimate.
World 2022-23 corn carryout was reduced 6.26 million metric tons from the July estimate to 306.68 million tons.
The bottom line, U.S. and world corn supplies tightened on the balance tables.
Soybeans
U.S. soybean yields were pegged at 51.9 bpa, up from 51.5 bpa last month. Traders expected yields to be lowered to 51.1 bpa. U.S. soybean production was estimated at 4.531 billion bushels, up 26 million bushels from last month. The trade estimate was 4.481 billion bushels. Thus, bean production was 50 million bushels larger than the average trade estimate.
Bean carryover the 2021-22 crop year came in at 225 million bushels, up 10 million from the July estimate, but nearly exactly what the trade expected. Soybean carryover for the 2022-23 crop year was 245 million bushels, up 15 million from last month and the trade estimate.
World 2022-23 soybean carryout increased 1.8 million metric tons from the July estimate to 101.41 million metric tons.
The bottom line, U.S. and world soybean supplies were slightly larger.
Wheat
U.S. production was virtually unchanged, 2022-23 U.S. ending stocks decreased 29 million bushels due primarily to increased exports. World wheat carryout was virtually unchanged.
The bottom line, fundamentals did not change much on wheat.
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, StoneX