We were buyers this week. We have corn, soybeans, and wheat in Extended 3-Box Buy Signals. We have been telling livestock feeders and users it is time to accumulate. Grain prices are well below any price buyers budgeted earlier in the year.
Corn
The USDA?s analysis of the stocks and all positions report caused them to increase corn usage estimates for the bushels in the bin, cutting 2023-24 corn stocks 120 million bushels below the lowest trade guess. The average trade guess expected the USDA to increase corn stocks by 27 million bushels.
The USDA also increased usage by 100 million bushels for the new crop year and left the yield estimate unchanged. Their estimate today pegs ending stocks as of August 31, 2025, at 2.097 billion bushels, 215 below the average trade estimate.
World corn carryout increased slightly from the June estimate.
Cheap grain increases usage. We are not trying to make a bullish argument, although we believe prices are cheap enough and have adjusted to current surplus fundamentals. Weather is the biggest uncertainty.
Soybeans
Very small changes were made this month, and the net result is the USDA expects US ending stocks this fall to total 345 million bushels. Their forecast is for the US to have 435 million bushels, 100 million more, left in the bin a year from now, not a positive fundamental outlook. On the technical side, spec funds are loaded up on shorts.
World carryout was virtually unchanged, down less than a quarter of a ton from the June estimate.
Wheat
US wheat supplies were raised on increased wheat production and beginning stocks. All wheat production is raised 134 million bushels to 2,008 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields. Ending stocks were also increased 98 million bushels for the 2024-25 crop. World wheat carryout increased just under 5 million metric tons.
Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX