Overall, there were no major changes in today?s USDA old crop supply demand tables. The numbers were most favorable to corn, as US and world carryout both shrank a bit more than trade expected. Changes to the soybean numbers were negligible, while US wheat carryout increased more than expected.
The USDA left their South American production estimates unchanged this month.
Thirty minutes after the reports, prices across our crop markets were largely the same as they were five minutes before the reports. Traders seem to have shrugged at this round of reports. The May reports will be more important as they will include 2025-26 new crop supply demand tables.
As expected, the USDA lowered their US and world carryout estimates for 2024-25 old crop corn. The US corn carryout was 75 million bushels smaller than their March estimate, which was a bigger reduction than the average trade estimate forecast. The smaller US corn ending stocks were largely due to a 100 million bushel increase in exports. World corn carryout was 1.25 million tons (49 million bushels) smaller than March.
The US soybean carryout was reduced by 5 million bushels due to small changes in imports, crush, and residual. This was largely in line with trade expectations. World soybean carryout increased by 1.07 million tons (39 million bushels).
US wheat carryout increased by 27 million bushels month to month, more than trade expected.
Source: USDA, Reuters