The changes this month from the USDA were mostly minor adjustments from their August estimates, particularly with soybeans and wheat, which both saw little to no changes from last month. In the end US carryout totals for corn and soybeans both declined this month, while US wheat carryout remained unchanged.
For corn, the direction of change was not in line with pre-report trade expectations. While traders forecast the USDA to make cuts to their US corn acreage and yield estimates, the agency left corn harvested acreage unchanged and increased their corn yield estimate half a bushel higher. The result was a US corn production of 15.186 billion bushels, 39 million larger than last month. However, incoming stocks were reduced by 55 million bushels, which canceled out the larger production total and left US 2024-25 new crop corn carryout at 4.586 billion bushels, 16 million smaller than August. Global corn carryout was down from last month but larger than trade expectations.
The USDA left US soybean harvested acreage and yield unchanged this month. Beginning stocks were down 5 million bushels and residual usage was up by 2 million, leaving 2024-25 US soybean ending stocks at 550 million bushels, 10 million fewer than last month. Global soybean carryout was slightly larger than last month when trade expected a small decrease.
The USDA made no changes to their US wheat supply demand table this month. It looked identical to August. Global wheat carryout increased by +600k tons, when trade expected them to decrease by -600k tons.
Source: USDA, Reuters, StoneX