USDA estimates continue to indicate big crops
The USDA’s corn yield and production numbers were little changed from September’s WASDE. The headline numbers were a US corn yield of 186.0 and US soybean yield of 53.0 bpa. Both yield estimates were down less than 1 bushel from the September estimates. Trade was hoping for a nearly 3 bushel yield reduction in corn, while the new soybean estimate was right in line with the average trade estimate.
US corn production still stands at a whopping 16.752 billion bushels. The 2025-26 corn carry-in was up 207 million bushels per the September Stocks report, corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels, which increased US corn carryout 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion bushels. This was slightly above trade expectations.
US soybean carry-in was down 14 million bushels per the September Stocks report, yields fell 0.5 bpa, and production dropped 48 million bushels. US soybean exports were reduced by 50 million bushels, leaving ending stocks down just 10 million bushels from September. The smaller export number does not indicate the USDA expects a surge in Chinese buying.
An increase in US wheat acreage and yield produced a 58 million bushel production increase. Carryout increased by essentially the same amount.
World corn demand saw a small shift from the old to new crop, but ending stocks for 2025-26 were little changed. World soybean production fell 4 million tons, and carryout dropped 2 million tons, very small adjustment. World wheat stocks were up 7.4 million tons due to a large 12.7 million ton increase in global production.
The overall take is that US production numbers are large, and balance sheets are ample. The USDA did not provide optimism for China purchases and world wheat carryout is ample.
Marketing
Despite the price declines following today’s reports, crop market prices are still holding at or above the 20-day average. Today, we still have corn and soybean Sell Signals. If you didn’t complete planned sales for the first of three rounds of Sell Signals that we expect between November and the end of February, you can still sell needed bushels. If you need cash over the next few weeks, you can make some sales to generate that cash.
We don’t see the fundamentals changing enough to alter our attitude. Today’s numbers were overall neutral but will look disappointing to traders that were hoping for more a more bullish impact.
We expect two more rounds of Sell Signals by the end of February.
Source: USDA, Reuters