The highly anticipated May USDA supply demand estimates contained a couple of surprises. First both old and new crop U.S. wheat carryout was smaller than trade expected. Second, the first USDA 2022-23 yield estimate was pegged at 177.0 bushels per acre, which was 4.0 bpa below the adjusted trend yield estimate in the February USDA Ag Outlook Forum. See the U.S. supply demand tables below.
The rest of the key U.S. numbers were not far from trade estimates. Both old and new corn carryout were larger than expected. Despite the lower than expected 2022-23 corn yield, carryout increased on a 2.5% cut to domestic use and exports.
The 2022-23 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2021-22. The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks, and higher prices.
The 2022-23 world carryout for corn and soybeans were larger than expected, while world wheat carryout was smaller than expected.
In South America, the USDA left their April estimates for Brazilian corn and bean production unchanged while they lowered their Argentine corn estimate by 1.5 million tons and left Argentine bean production unchanged.
