Grain Stocks
The USDA estimated that March 1st US corn, soybean, and wheat stocks were larger than last year, as expected. Corn and soybean stocks were up 10-11% year over year. The corn number was largely as expected, but the soybean total came in near the top end of the range of trade estimates. US wheat stocks were 5% larger than last year nearly exactly as trade expected.
Of the total corn stocks, 5.43 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 21% from last year. Soybean stocks on farms totaled 900 million bushels, up just 3% from last year.
Prospective Plantings
The USDA initial acreage estimates fell within the range of trade estimates. However, the average trade estimates for corn and soybeans were off about a million acres, favoring corn over soybeans. So, in the end, the USDA put their initial corn acreage total at 95.338 million acres, which was about a million more than the average trade estimate. Likewise, soybean acreage was at 84.7 million acres, about a million less than trade expected.
The wheat acreage total was also about a million acres off the average trade estimate at 43.775 million acres, about a million less than average trade expectations. This would be 3% below last year and would represent the smallest wheat acreage total since records began in 1919. Overall, trades assessed the reports in a favorable light and all our followed markets are trading higher following the reports. This keeps our Minneapolis Wheat Sell Signal alive and likely will help winter wheat move into Sell Signals tomorrow or the next day. Continue making sales on each Sell Signal.
Source: USDA, Reuters