As expected, the USDA made only a few changes to their supply demand tables this month. First, they left US corn and soybean balance sheets essentially unchanged. Trade had expected US corn ending stocks to tighten slightly, so that could be seen as a slight disappointment. For US wheat, the USDA called for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, and lower exports which increased US wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels.
Global corn and soybean ending stocks both tightened a bit this month, while global wheat stocks increased slightly. The drop in global soybean ending stocks fell below the low end of trade estimates, so this would be the second small surprise of the day. Increased crush totals explained the change in world soybean carryout.
The USDA chose to leave its South American production estimates unchanged this month, which was in line with trade expectations.
Our analysis will be available shortly.